The Council on Criminal Justice has a report by Thaddeus Johnson titled Violent Victimization is Decreasing–But Not for Everyone. The thrust of the report is based on the one-year changes in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) between 2022 and 2023.
New federal crime data show that nonlethal violent victimization decreased by 11% in 2023 for Americans aged 12 and older. But while the rate of robberies, aggravated assaults, and rape/sexual assaults fell for White and Hispanic people, it moved in the opposite direction for Black Americans.
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Victimization rates for Black Americans increased 37% from 2022 and 2023, driven by a 79% increase in robbery, 47% increase in rape/sexual assault rates, and a 16% increase in aggravated assault.
We will put to one side, for now, the variations in measures, which the report notes warrant caution. Even with that caution in mind, the reported increases are alarming. What caused these numbers to move in opposite directions?
The report is mostly statistics and not a discussion of possible causes. What little it does say, though, is a head shaker. Continue reading . . .