by Elizabeth Berger · Jan 5, 2024 3:24 pm
In a recent news release, the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) reported that the year 2023 marked the highest number of officers shot in the line of duty since they began collecting this data in 2018. Ambush-style attacks accounted for over one-third of the shootings and also tended to be more lethal.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jan 4, 2024 3:46 pm
The question of racial bias in the criminal justice system is a highly debated issue. In recent years, it has become a common belief that the criminal justice system is racially biased, wherein black and Latino defendants receive harsher sentences than whites or Asian defendants. But the empirical research does not fully support these perceptions, according to a recently published meta-analysis (note: a subscription is required for access).
by Elizabeth Berger · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm
In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · Aug 24, 2023 2:53 pm
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) recently released a report revealing a 3% decrease in recidivism among inmates who were released the year following enactment of Proposition 57. This legislation, known as the Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act of 2016, aimed to reduce sentences for inmates participating in rehabilitation programs. CDCR Secretary Jeff Macomber hailed the report as evidence of improved public safety, citing Prop 57 programs as the primary reason for the decrease. However, a closer examination by CJLF raises doubts about these claims. In our newly-released Research in Brief report, we note how the CDCR’s report lacks the necessary rigor to support Macomber’s claim.
by Elizabeth Berger · Aug 1, 2023 12:10 pm
Last week, the city of Vallejo, California officially declared a state of emergency due to its lack of police officers, Daniel Egitto of the Vallejo Times-Herald reports. Over the last several months, the Vallejo Police Department (VPD)’s officer shortage has been worsening, with five officers leaving since March, and another three scheduled to leave within the next month.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jul 14, 2023 8:50 am
In a recent release, California Attorney General Rob Bonta released 2022 crime statistics for the state, revealing a 6.2% increase in the violent crime rate compared to 2021. The report, “Crime in California 2022,” also noted a 6.2% increase in the property crime rate. In this post, I discuss the findings from this report and display the data points graphically.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 26, 2023 12:17 pm
Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.
by Elizabeth Berger · May 25, 2023 12:35 pm
The question of racial bias in police traffic stops is a highly debated issue. Some analyses have shown that certain racial or ethnic groups are disproportionately represented in traffic stops, leading many people to allege racial profiling and discrimination. However, it is not accurate or fair to claim that all police traffic stops are inherently racist. Other factors can contribute to racial disparities in police stops, including differences in driving behavior, geographic location, and crime rates in specific areas. As more research is conducted on this topic, it becomes more apparent how much context and other factors can play a role in traffic stop decisions. For example, research that adequately accounts for the impact of contextual and situational factors has found that racial disparities may not be as pronounced as previously thought, and that they are often explained by other factors unrelated to race.
This was the case in a recent study examining traffic stops in Pennsylvania, which found no evidence of racial profiling. According to the full-length report, the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) stopped more than 440,000 drivers in 2022, 78.5% of whom white. In comparison, 14.4% were Black, and 8.2% were Hispanic. To conduct the study, the PSP partnered with Dr. Robin Engel and the National Police Foundation to ensure that the evaluation was independent and external to the department. Overall, these data should inspire public confidence in the police. It also suggests that PSP’s approach could serve as a promising model for other agencies.
by Elizabeth Berger · Mar 29, 2023 2:31 pm
In recent years, many states throughout the nation have taken steps to reduce or eliminate the use of monetary bail. According to proponents, the purpose of bail “reform” is to reduce jail populations and decrease income disparities regarding how bail is applied. However, critics believe that such laws would negatively impact public safety due to more defendants committing crimes while on pretrial release. Further, there also concerns that reforms could increase failure-to-appear rates.
One state where bail reform has received considerable attention is New York. Statewide reforms first took effect on January 1, 2020, though it was later amended in April 2020 and May 2022. Currently, there isn’t a ton of research examining whether bail reform contributed to crime, but more research is starting to trickle out on this topic. There seems to be a lot of variaiton regarding the findings though. One of the more recent reports on this topic was published earlier this month by the Data Collaborative for Justice (DCJ), which claimed that bail reform decreased recidivism among pretrial releases in New York City. However, this is inconsistent with a previous study from last year, also conducted in New York City, which found the opposite: bail reform efforts significantly increased recidivism. Thus, it’s important to read these studies very carefully to determine which ones are the most relevant and helpful. In this post, I will review the latest report released by the DCJ and provide my thoughts regarding its validity.
by Elizabeth Berger · Mar 22, 2023 2:18 pm
In Spring 2022, the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) launched a Task Force on Long Sentences with the aim of assessing our nation’s use of long prison terms (i.e., 10+ years) and the impact on public safety and justice. Most recently, the Task Force released a report detailing their 14 recommendations about how to reduce mass incarceration without negatively impacting public safety.
The recommendations are questionable, though, as they seem overly optimistic about the state of the research. For example, they propose various alternatives to incarceration that are supposedly effective, though they make the research sound much more conclusive than it actually is. Perhaps they ought to be reminded of the old adage: “If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.” In this post, I will highlight some of the more controversial “recommendations” and provide some points for consideration. In a future post, I will critically assess each recommendation in more detail and provide additional points for consideration.
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