Racial Variation in Recent Changes in Victimization

The Council on Criminal Justice has a report by Thaddeus Johnson titled Violent Victimization is Decreasing–But Not for Everyone. The thrust of the report is based on the one-year changes in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) between 2022 and 2023.

New federal crime data show that nonlethal violent victimization decreased by 11% in 2023 for Americans aged 12 and older. But while the rate of robberies, aggravated assaults, and rape/sexual assaults fell for White and Hispanic people, it moved in the opposite direction for Black Americans.

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Victimization rates for Black Americans increased 37% from 2022 and 2023, driven by a 79% increase in robbery, 47% increase in rape/sexual assault rates, and a 16% increase in aggravated assault.

We will put to one side, for now, the variations in measures, which the report notes warrant caution. Even with that caution in mind, the reported increases are alarming. What caused these numbers to move in opposite directions?

The report is mostly statistics and not a discussion of possible causes. What little it does say, though, is a head shaker.

It’s important to remember that while examining violent victimization data in the short term can shed light on the most vulnerable groups, meaningful solutions to these disparities call for a deeper dive into long-term data and the broader social and economic conditions that drive the differences in victimization across racial and ethnic groups.

Of course I would not dispute that “broader social and economic conditions” warrant exploration, but why is there no mention at all of justice policy issues? The places in America with the largest Black populations are also the places most likely to have local governments that jumped on the “defund the police” bandwagon. In addition, they most often have elected so-called “progressive” prosecutors that have given the local thugs a green light to go ahead and victimize people, secure in the knowledge that they will not get long sentences.

Shouldn’t we look into that also? Apparently not. That is the proverbial elephant in the living room. Everyone knows it’s there, but it is considered a breach of etiquette to mention it.