How gang violence contributes to homicide rates: Study
Violent behavior is commonly associated with gangs and the nature of gang homicides often differs when compared with non-gang homicides. For example, gang homicides are affected by relationships between gangs and are often driven by violent acts of retaliation, or out of fear. Further, gang homicides have an influence on the cycle of victimization that impacts relationships between gangs, violent acts of revenge, and safety. These dynamics can also be affected by a plethora of factors (e.g., social, economic, political, cultural, behavioral) that are salient within a specific area or neighborhood. These factors influence things like subcultures of violence and levels of gang membership, which unsurprisingly can increase the gang homicide rates. Understanding these dynamics is very important for addressing homicides nationwide.
A recently published 2022 study in Deviant Behavior sought to do this using a nationwide sample generated by the National Youth Gang Survey (NYGS). In the study, the authors examined the probability of gang-related homicides in relation to various community and local factors related to gang violence. The results showed that drug-related factors as well as inter- and intra-gang conflict were the most likely to increase the probability of gang-related homicides in a jurisdiction. While many factors may influence the likelihood of gang violence, it appears that specific factors are more likely to result in more serious issues such as homicide.
The authors analyzed reports provided by law enforcement as part of the National Youth Gang Survey (NYGS) conducted in 2012. The data were obtained at one period in time from a sample of more than 2,500 police departments. Responding jurisdictions were of varying population size, ranging from large cities of 50,000 or more, to suburban areas with populations as low as 2,500, and rural areas with even smaller populations. This data is a nationally representative sample of law enforcement jurisdictions from across the country, making it ideal for the current study. The dependent variable was the number of gang-related homicides occurring within the past year. This was calculated using crime data, and police department assessment of the incident determined whether it was gang-related. The independent variables included other factors that were believed to influence gang violence (e.g., drugs, inter-gang conflict) in a particular jurisdiction, and were based on law enforcement perceptions.
Results revealed a significant and positive association between gang-related homicides and drug-related factors, intra- and inter-gang conflict, and population size. Additionally, places where gangs had lengthier histories of problematic behavior also saw increased risk for gang-related homicides. Most impactful were drug-related factors, with jurisdictions reporting drug-related factors as a prevalent issue suffering a 126% greater risk of gang-related homicides. Secondly, jurisdictions reporting inter-gang conflict as a serious issue saw a 79% greater risk of gang-related homicides, and those citing intra-gang conflict as a serious issue had a 63% greater risk of gang-related homicides.
Gang crime and violence are huge problems that are difficult to address, so learning about what characteristics might contribute most to homicides is extremely beneficial. This is particularly useful in areas with funding constraints; if jurisdictions are not able to effectively address all the issues that gangs are causing, they can focus on alleviating the most serious problems (i.e., those related to homicides). One possible method mentioned by the authors is to adopt focused deterrence strategies that aim to reduce all types of offenses, including homicide. Intelligence-led policing also might be a viable option to identify gang members and prolific offenders by gathering intelligence about them (e.g., where they reside, what crimes they engage in, what gang they are involved with) in advance so that efforts might be more efficiently targeted.
Given the potential for various factors contributing to gang violence and homicide, it would be beneficial to study gang-related homicides further to provide more insight on what law enforcement should focus on beyond traditional gang suppression tactics. Relatedly, future research should examine whether the presence of multiple gangs in one area influences gang-related homicides due to increased potential for inter-gang conflict.
In summary, the current study revealed how different jurisdiction-level factors can contribute to gang violence and the probability of gang homicides in an area. Gang violence is a complicated issue, but focusing on specific determinants of gang violence (e.g., drug-related determinants, inter- or intra-gang conflict) will likely decrease violent activity related to drugs and gang rivalries. Subsequently, this would decrease the rate of gang-related homicides, which would ideally result in an overall reduction in homicides nationwide.
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Hi Elizabeth,
I appreciate this summary of how gang violence affects homicides, but there are also recent trends that suggest that something amazing is happening with youth gangs. My post at https://ricknevin.com/2020/12/the-nyc-crime-decline-and-better-policing/ includes a graph from national crime survey data showing: “The percent of students ages 12-18 reporting gangs present at their school peaked at 24.2% in 2005 and fell to 8.6% in 2017. The percent of black students ages 12-18 reporting gangs present at their school peaked at 37.5% in 2005 and fell to 16.6% in 2017. … the percent of Hispanic students ages 12-18 reporting gangs present at their school peaked at 38.9% in 2005 and fell to 12.3% in 2017 … Trendlines for 2005-2017 show that the percent of students with gangs present at their school is on track to hit zero around 2022-2024.”
In that same post, I show that juvenile weapons offense arrest rates have followed the same pattern: a steep decline in juvenile arrest rates and a much steeper decline in black juvenile arrest rates. This is the same pattern seen in juvenile arrest rates for violent and property crime, tracking earlier trends in elevated preschool blood lead prevalence, as shown in my post at https://ricknevin.com/2020/11/a-black-male-baby-born-today-stands-a-near-zero-chance-of-going-to-prison/ .
In 2019, there was an uptick in the percent of all students with gangs in school (from 8.6% to 9%) but another large decline in the percent of black student with gangs in school (from 16.6% to 14.7%). See data at https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_230.20.asp?current=yes .
The FBI expanded homicide data also shows that juvenile gang murders fell from 1,158 in 1995 to 293 in 2019. The number did jump back up to 415 in 2020, but that was still much lower than the 578 recorded in 2014 when the USA overall murder rate fell to the lowest level ever recorded in FBI data going back to 1960.
If these trends continue then we might have to consider the possibility that juvenile gangs don’t really cause crime as much as juvenile crime causes juvenile gangs.
Hi Rick,
I appreciate your reply and the points you bring up here.
First, an overall thought. I don’t really think the argument is that “juvenile gangs cause crime,” nor is it “crime causes juvenile gangs.” We know there are many factors that contribute to crime, gangs being one of them, in addition to many others such as family dynamics, peers, neighborhood, etc. They are myriad factors that affect both the prevalence of crime and the formation/sustainability of juvenile gangs, making this an incredibly complicated relationship to unpack. I think one of the biggest takeaways is that not all gangs will commit tons of murders, but some will, and identifying the motives (e.g., out of fear/self-protection, retaliation, drug wars, etc.) can help us understand why this might be the case.
Related to the “trends” we are seeing re: the reduction of young gangs in schools, I don’t know if the research is so conclusive on this. In reference to the statement: “The percent of students ages 12-18 reporting gangs present at their school peaked at 24.2% in 2005 and fell to 8.6% in 2017″ – I checked out the links to the survey data about gang presence in schools. But, the definition is only looking at the presence of youth gangs on school property: “at school means in the school building, on school property, on a school bus, or on the way to or from school.” Given this definition, how do we know that these numbers accurately reflect the prevalence of youth gangs overall? I.e., how do we know that there isn’t a youth gang problem outside of schools?
Regarding the expanded homicide data, I do think it’s important to look at the percentage of homicides that are gang-related and how this fluctuates over time. Certainly, this is something I think we need to continue to examine in the future. But here you only present counts of juvenile gang murders — it’s kind of hard to interpret as presented. What I’m really wondering is, are youth gangs (or gangs in general) comprising a smaller or larger percentage of murders now, as opposed to then? In other words, what percentage of total murders were related to juvenile gangs in 1995 vs. 2014, 2019, 2020, etc.?
Regardless though, the unprecedented increase in homicides from 2019 to 2020 is greatly concerning. I’m wondering how much of this increase is due to changes in gang-related homicides, or if all “types” of homicides increased across the board. This is something that the research isn’t entirely clear on, especially post-pandemic, though it could be a partial explanation for the increase in homicides.
Thank you for the discussion. Definitely a lot to consider!
Liz