Analyzing homicide trends: Republican vs. Democratic leadership

In January 2023, a controversial report released by nonprofit thinktank the Third Way made claims that poor policymaking and lack of gun control by Republican leadership are the main reasons for the homicide increase. Their analysis looked at murder rates from 2000 to 2020, comparing the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump compared to the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden. They found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states consistently exceeded that of Biden-voting states, with a widening gap over the years. In 2020, the per capita murder rate in Trump states was 44% higher than in Biden states, and when all 21 years were combined, it was was 23% higher.  The top 10 states with the highest murder rates have been dominated by red states, such as Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri. Blue states, including California and New York, have not been among the top 10 states for murder rates. Their conclusion was that “the data shows that the Red State murder gap has persisted over the past two decades.” The report attributed the higher rates to factors such as higher gun ownership rates, higher poverty rates, and lower educational attainment in red states relative to blue states.  They also noted that the murder rates in red states increased at a higher rate compared to blue states.

A subsequent report released by The Heritage Foundation in October 2023 challenged these claims. Their main criticism of the Third Way report was that it failed to acknowledge that crime is a local and highly concentrated phenomena. The report emphasized that crime data analysis should consider the local context because each state consists of different law enforcement agencies and prosecutors with varying approaches to law enforcement. The Heritage report also argued that because electoral sentiment can shift, the Third Way’s holding “red” and “blue” states constant throughout the study period was flawed. To address these concerns, the authors conducted their own analysis that analyzed homicide rates at the county level, correcting for changes in voting behavior over time. Their analysis revealed homicide rates in Democratic-leaning counties, all the way back to 2002. Overall, their conclusions suggested a “blue county murder problem” rather than a “red state murder problem.” When looking at the county-level, they found that some counties reported  low or negligible homicides while a few counties experienced disproportionately high rates. This discrepancy implies that a state’s overall homicide rate can be heavily influenced by a handful of counties, potentially distorting the association between political identification and crime rates.

Other research has also sought to understand why homicide rates would increase in some cities but decrease in others. Mancik et al. (2021) found this as well, and conducted qualitative interviews with experts and community members to identify potential drivers of these trends. One important theme that came up in the interviews was the role of drug markets. Respondents noted that violence often stemmed from disputes related to drug markets, including turf wars and territorial boundaries. Gangs were also identified as a significant contributor to recent changes in homicide rates, particularly because gang members tend to use violence for conflict “resolution.” Domestic violence also emerged as an important driver of homicide rates, particularly in certain cities.

Changes in policing practices and police-community relations were also identified as factors influencing recent trends in homicides, such as the “de-policing” phenomenon, along with the decrease in proactive policing strategies. Tension between the police and the public also seems to have an independent effect on homicide rates, as the breakdown of communication between law enforcement and the public leads to a “handle it ourselves” mentality, where community members are less likely to report incidents or cooperate with law enforcement, leading to an increase in retaliatory crime.  Resource limitations on the capacity of law enforcement also restrict their ability to effectively combat crime. Reduced resources, including hiring freezes and budget cuts, were seen as affecting police staffing and their ability to maintain focus on crime prevention.

Conclusion

The two reports reveal contrasting patterns, though neither are explicitly false. When looking at states, the Third Way found that red states had higher homicide rates. But when looking at counties, The Heritage Foundation found that blue counties had higher homicide rates. These findings underscore the need for a more nuanced analysis that goes beyond broad categorizations of states.

When considering all of these potential nuances, it is naive to draw a hard and fast rule about the relationship between political affiliation and crime. We know that murders are concentrated in small sets of urban areas, which are often under Democratic leadership and have lower firearm ownership rates. But, with other research indicating the influence of drug markets and gangs, it is entirely possible that any relationships with political affiliation are just spurious and non-causal in nature. What we can say for sure is that the majority of counties in the country have no murders, while a small set of counties bear the brunt of homicide rates. Even within the most dangerous counties, murders are highly concentrated within zip codes. For example, in Los Angeles county, the worst 10% of zip codes accounted for 41% of the murders.

Taking all of this into consideration, future research should look at the features of these specific neighborhoods (e.g., high gang activity, major highways available for drug trafficking, poor police-community relationships) and come up with targeted strategies (such as hot spots policing) to reduce violence in these areas.  Simply put, homicides cannot be addressed with a one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, targeted strategies tailored to the unique characteristics and challenges of these hot spot urban areas would likely be beneficial for enhancing community safety.