Tagged: fbi

Unpacking the truth: California’s reforms and crime data accuracy

by · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm

In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.

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Comparing nationwide violent crime estimates: Summary-based vs. incident-based reporting

by · Nov 22, 2022 10:53 am

The FBI released official 2021 crime statistics last month, but the data leaves major gaps in our understanding of national-level crime rates. Unfortunately, the numbers are incomplete this year because 36% of U.S. law enforcement agencies, some of them major cities, failed to submit their crime reports. This is largely because the FBI made major changes to the way that it collects crime data, making the submission process much more complicated. Rather than following the arduous process, many agencies simply declined to participate in last year’s data collection. In comparison, 2020 crime statistics included data from 85% of U.S. law enforcement agencies.

This post briefly reviews agency participation rates and discusses what that means for our current understanding of national-level crime. Then, using data from the years 2017-2020 (all of the years for which data from both systems are available),  I examine whether the two systems produce similar violent crime estimates. Continue reading . . .

2021 national crime rates are a mystery as FBI transitions to a new data system

by · Oct 21, 2022 7:29 am

Earlier this month, the FBI released the national-level crime statistics for 2021. According to that data, violent crime, particularly murder, remained a major issue in the United States. Crime remained relatively consistent from 2020 to 2021 with no statistically significant changes between years, though violent crime was still elevated compared to 2019 levels. From 2020 to 2021, national levels of violent crime decreased slightly (-1.0%), largely driven by decreases in robbery (-8.9%). Murders, however, increased (+4.3%). The data is available for download via the Crime Data Explorer, or it can be accessed using a new tool called the Law Enforcement Agency Reported Crime Analysis Tool (LEARCAT). But the data this year may be lower quality than years past, limiting our ability to draw inferences about national-level crime rates.

Policymakers and researchers rely on these data to understand state and national crime trends, but that may be more challenging this year. Unfortunately, the FBI’s plan to modernize its reporting of crime data has not gone according to plan, so it’s hard know how accurate these 2021 estimates are. The new system has advantages over the old system, but it is much more cumbersome and time-consuming to use, which has negatively impacted law enforcement agencies’ willingness to submit their data. And because of these low participation rates, there are huge gaps in nationwide crime statistics for 2021.

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FBI releases first quarter of crime data for 2022

by · Jun 9, 2022 2:20 pm

Earlier this week, the FBI released the first quarter of crime data for 2022. There has been no official government report published at this time, though I examined the data to get an idea of whether crime increased or decreased relative to the first quarter of 2021. Unfortunately, I was unable to compare the data to quarter one of 2019 and 2020 as those data are not currently available by quarter.

Rates for all types of crime remained relatively stable, though this may change as we head into the summer. Larceny offenses saw the largest increase, which was only a mere 0.08%, and overall property crime increased 0.05%. The largest decrease was for arson, which decreased by about 0.2%. Rates for murder decreased by .08% (see more details in the table below).

FBI finally releases data from the National Use-of-Force Data Collection

by · Jun 9, 2022 10:04 am

On May 31, 2022, the FBI released national-level statistics on police use of force for the first time ever. These data were derived from the National Use-of-Force Data Collection, which is the first national-level dataset to collect data on police use of force. Law enforcement agencies are not required to submit their data though, so participation rates have been a consistent issue that has prevented the release of information up until this point. The FBI has been reporting on participation rates, but because participation rates have been below the required 60% threshold (up until now), it was unclear whether details on actual use-of-force data would ever be released. Relatedly, there was speculation that lack of participation might even cause the database to shut down.

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Use-of-force data collection may cease due to lack of LE participation

by · Dec 22, 2021 10:33 am

Over the last  few years, strain between police and the community has intensified greatly as incidents have come to light showing hostility between the police and the communities. However, when it comes to really understanding how often these types of events occur, there is no official number of the number of people killed by police annually.  Still, unreliable government numbers fail to portray the true scope of officer-involved shootings and fatalities. The National Use-of-Force Data Collection is the first national-level dataset to offer big-picture insights on police use of force, but participation has been quite low. In fact, law enforcement participation in the national data collection has been so low that it could cause the database to shut down.

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FBI releases 2020 incident-level crime statistics

by · Dec 8, 2021 10:52 am

On December 6, the FBI released detailed 2020 crime data for offenses reported to law enforcement in the United States. According to the 2020 data, nearly 9 million crimes were reported to police in 2020. 60.5% (about 5.4 million) were property crimes, 25.2% (about 2.2 million) were crimes against persons, and 14.3% (about 1.3 million) were crimes against society. The most commonly reported offenses were larceny/theft, assault, and drug/narcotic offenses, respectively.

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