Tagged: homicide

Analyzing homicide trends: Republican vs. Democratic leadership

by · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .

California violent crime up 6.2% in last year: 2022 data released

by · Jul 14, 2023 8:50 am

In a recent release, California Attorney General Rob Bonta released 2022 crime statistics for the state, revealing a 6.2% increase in the violent crime rate compared to 2021. The report, “Crime in California 2022,” also noted a 6.2% increase in the property crime rate. In this post, I discuss the findings from this report and display the data points graphically.

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Exploring early 2023 homicide trends in U.S. cities

by · Jun 26, 2023 12:17 pm

Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.

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Violent crime is a key issue for U.S. midterm election

by · Nov 7, 2022 11:47 am

Crime has become a big issue in the U.S. midterm elections. According to a recent Gallup poll, crime ranked as the second most important issue among voters, with 71% of registered voters saying it was either “extremely” or “very” important to their vote. This came second after the economy, which 85% of voters said would be extremely or very important to their vote. According to a different Gallup survey released a few weeks ago, more than half of Americans (56%) said there was more crime in their area compared to a year ago. According to Gallup, “That’s up a whopping 11 points from 2021 and 18 points from 2020, and is the highest mark ever measured.” This issue was a concern across party lines, with 73% of Republicans, 51% of Independents, and 42% of Democrats all agreeing that crime is getting worse (in 2020, these percentages were 38%, 38%, and 37%, respectively).

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Crime trends in California: 2021 rates show increase in violent crime

by · Oct 17, 2022 9:55 am

A new report from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) reviews some of the recently released state-level data on 2021 California crime rates. Once again, it seems like the authors are overselling the fact that crime rates are lower than the 1990s crime peak, although their findings are similar to what I found when I analyzed the data last month. Indeed, crime rates are lower than they were in the 1990s. But keep in mind that the 1990s saw a historic crime peak. If “success” means having crime rates that are lower than the historic peak, then that’s a pretty low bar for success. It’s almost like saying that the 2008 recession wasn’t that bad because it was still better than the Great Depression.

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Krasner insists that his policies are “working,” seemingly unconcerned about homicide rates

by · Oct 6, 2022 12:48 pm

Over the last several years, the progressive prosecutor movement has grown in popularity, with more and more policy changes reducing penalties for certain crimes. A common theme is for district attorneys to restrict prosecutions for certain offenses, and to reduce the severity of punishments for cases that are prosecuted.

One example is Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who has been dismissing more and more cases each year, despite the fact that the city recently reached its highest murder rate in history. He thinks that his approach is “working,” per a recent local news interview (originally reported by Heather McDonald in the Daily Mail and summarized in a CJLF post). In the interview, he incessently denied that his policies have negative consequences and was seemingly unconcerned about the homicide increase.

The sheer fact that homicides have increased in Philadelphia every year of Krasner’s term should be cause for concern. Not surprisingly, a deep dive into the research confirms that Krasner’s policies are at least partially to blame for the increase in homicides in Philadelphia.

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Philadelphia murder rates rise due to lenient sentences sought by progressive prosecutor Larry Krasner

by · Sep 27, 2022 12:58 pm

As the progressive prosecutor movement grows in popularity, we see more and more policy changes that reduce penalties for certain crimes. One of the common themes is de-prosecution, or the discretionary decision to not prosecute certain criminal offenses. Another aspect of de-prosecution involves reducing the severity of punishment for individuals who are prosecuted. The movement came about due to the belief of many progressives that mass incarceration actually increases crime through supposed “criminogenic” effects. That is, they believe that people who serve long periods of time in prison will adapt to that culture and learn certain behaviors that will make them worse criminals. However, opponents argue that de-prosecution policies don’t hold offenders sufficiently accountable, and will only encourage more crime as offenders learn that there are little to no consequences for their behavior.

In Philadelphia, de-prosecution began in 2015 with District Attorney Seth Williams. This resulted in a substantial decline in both new cases prosecuted and sentencings (particularly for drug possession, drug trafficking, and felony possession of firearms), a trend that accelerated when District Attorney Larry Krasner took office in 2018. At the annual Federalist Society Convention last year, Krasner boasted that his policies are “on the side of the data,” vehemently denying that de-prosecution increases crime. However, a 2022 study published in Criminology and Public Policy refuted Krasner’s claims. The study, conducted by Thomas Hogan, revealed a causal link between de-prosecution and increased homicides in Philadelphia.

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Violent crime is up in 2022, according to MCCA survey of 70 U.S. police agencies

by · Sep 16, 2022 3:09 pm

Violent crime is on the rise in the U.S., according to 2022 survey results recently published by the Major City Chiefs Association (MCCA). The MCCA is a professional organization of police executives that advocates for the advancement of public safety through innovation, research, and policy development. The results presented here were collected as part of an annual survey of their membership, which included 70 of the largest jurisdictions in the U.S.

Agencies reported the number of aggravated assaults, homicides, rapes, and robberies that occurred during the first half of 2022 and first half of 2021. Counts and rates were compared across years. Among responding agencies, there was a total increase of +4.4% in violent crime. This was driven mostly by increases in robberies, which were up +13.1%, and aggravated assaults, which were up by +2.6% These two crimes were the most prevalent overall, accounting for 86% of violent crime reported in 2022. Continue reading . . .

The myth of the “red state murder problem”

by · Aug 16, 2022 3:51 pm

After declining for over two decades, homicides in the United States increased sharply in 2015 and 2016. This slowed a little bit in the years that followed, until another dramatic increase in homicides occurred in 2020. In fact, the 30% increase from 2019-2020 is the largest ever recorded. By 2021, homicides rose another 5%. This uptick was not as striking as the one seen in 2020, though the numbers were still higher than pre-2019.

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FBI releases first quarter of crime data for 2022

by · Jun 9, 2022 2:20 pm

Earlier this week, the FBI released the first quarter of crime data for 2022. There has been no official government report published at this time, though I examined the data to get an idea of whether crime increased or decreased relative to the first quarter of 2021. Unfortunately, I was unable to compare the data to quarter one of 2019 and 2020 as those data are not currently available by quarter.

Rates for all types of crime remained relatively stable, though this may change as we head into the summer. Larceny offenses saw the largest increase, which was only a mere 0.08%, and overall property crime increased 0.05%. The largest decrease was for arson, which decreased by about 0.2%. Rates for murder decreased by .08% (see more details in the table below).