by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 29, 2022 11:00 am
Back in May 2021, we released a comprehensive research review examining the literature on the relationship between length of incarceration and recidivism. To date, this paper is the most comprehensive literature review on the topic. Over the last several months though, we have made some important updates and revisions. The updated version is now available via the Social Science Research Network.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 29, 2022 8:54 am
A new article by Thomas Hogan of the Manhattan Institute discusses some of the recent data on crime trends presented by the U.S. Sentencing Commission (USSC). One important point brought up in that piece concerns the recidivism of federal firearms offenders. Federal firearms offenders are usually convicted of being felons-in-possession of firearms, or they are convicted of carrying a firearm related to another crime such as drug trafficking or robbery. Per the USSC’s 2021 annual report, firearms offenders recidivate at a higher rate than all other offenders, with almost 70 percent being re-arrested within eight years of release. A complementary USSC report discusses these findings in more detail, noting that recidivism rates for firearms offender were consistently higher than non-firearms offenders regardless of age and criminal history.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 22, 2022 2:15 pm
Yesterday the United States Sentencing Commission (USSC) published their seventh study in their recidivism series. This study examined the relationship between length of incarceration and recidivism and serves as an update to a prior USSC report published in 2020. Both studies were conducted by Ryan Cotter and are part of a larger multi-year recidivism series of more than 32,000 federal offenders. The older study examined federal offenders released in 2005, and the newer study replicated the analysis but with a cohort released in 2010. Recidivism was measured by re-arrest within eight years post-release. Results of both studies were almost identical, revealing that lengthier sentences were associated with decreased recidivism rates. UPDATE: CJLF researcher was interviewed on this subject on LA’s John & Ken Show at this link. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · May 23, 2022 12:17 pm
On May 17, 2022, the United States Sentencing Commission (USSC) published new findings on eight-year recidivism rates of 25,142 federal offenders after their participation in Bureau of Prisons (BOP) treatment programs. The report is part of a larger multi-year recidivism study of more than 32,000 federal offenders released in 2010. The programs reduced overall recidivism for people who completed programs relative to eligible non-participants. Despite this, drug-related recidivism was still higher among program completers. The latter finding is perplexing considering that one major goal of the treatment programs was to reduce substance use.
by Elizabeth Berger · May 18, 2022 12:33 pm
In the United States, recidivism rates are the primary measure to evaluate the success of correctional and re-entry programs. Recidivism estimates can be controversial though, particularly given limitations of currently available data. A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlights some of these challenges. A more controversial part of the report argues that the effectiveness of correctional and re-entry programs can be better understood by looking at things like education and employment outcomes rather than focusing on recidivism specifically. Unfortunately, focusing solely on the latter does not tell the whole story, and does not accurately reflect whether a particular program is successful or not.
by Elizabeth Berger · Apr 4, 2022 2:41 pm
A new report from the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) presents some information on the impacts of Proposition 47 (Prop 47), calling it a “lifeline to California communities.” The report’s main conclusion is that Prop 47 is a success because it reduced prison costs without negatively impacting recidivism. The author contends that recidivism rates, homelessness, and unemployment all decreased after participating in Prop 47 programs, citing some data to support this conclusion. But a deeper dive into the source of these numbers proves quite skeptical, and whether or not these programs are actually effective remains unclear.
Further, the report also claims that Prop 47 has coincided with a period of record-low crime in California. Unfortunately, this statement is incredibly misleading. While overall crime rates might be down, this is largely driven by decreases in property crime, while some violent crimes (like murder) have been considerably high in recent years.
by Elizabeth Berger · Feb 14, 2022 12:55 pm
The United States Sentencing Commission (USSC) published new findings last week regarding the recidivism of federal offenders, finding that violent offenders recidivate at higher rates than their non-violent counterparts. The study used USSC data coupled with FBI criminal history records to examine eight-year recidivism rates for 13,883 federal offenders released in 2010. This study is part of a larger recidivism study that includes more than 32,000 federal offenders.
These findings support the longstanding idea that violent offenders are more likely to recidivate than non-violent offenders. While recidivism rates tended to decline with age, they were still consistently higher for violent offenders across all age groups. This was seen even in the oldest age category where most individuals are presumed to have “aged out of crime” (60+ years). Even among those 60 years and older, one quarter of violent offenders were rearrested within eight years.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jan 28, 2022 12:15 pm
The “Make-it-Right” (MIR) program is a restorative justice conferencing and diversion program that was implemented in San Francisco for high-risk teenagers facing medium-severity felony offenses (e.g., burglary, assault, motor vehicle theft). The National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) recently published a working paper that boasts a 30% reduction in four-year recidivism rates for youths in the program when compared with a control group. The researchers claim that the study is especially strong due to being a randomized controlled trial (RCT), i.e., the strongest type of individual research study. However, upon closer review of the study, there is reason to be skeptical of the results.
To summarize, it looks like the randomization method was severely compromised, rendering the “key strength” of the design effectively invalid. Now, this does happen in research sometimes, and there are ways to try to deal with it. However, I am disappointed that the authors did not acknowledge this problem, nor did they take any steps to mitigate it. Below, I provide a review of the study, explain how the randomization went wrong, how this affects the results, and some steps that the authors should have taken (but didn’t).
by Elizabeth Berger · Dec 20, 2021 2:12 pm
As research on crime over the life course evolves, a concept being used more and more is the idea of “desistance” from crime. Desistance refers to the cessation of criminal behavior and eventual ending of a criminal career. Typically, the process of desistance coincides with aging, maturity, and other factors that influence normative development. However, it doesn’t mean the same thing to everyone, largely because it has been defined in different ways over time.
From 1970-1999, desistance used to be considered simply the opposite of recidivism. It was defined as binary event, i.e. the complete termination of criminal behavior. Newer definitions (from 2000-present) define desistance as a process that evolves in different stages throughout the life course rather than a discrete event. Instead of focusing on risk factors as a way to predict recidivism, desistance focuses more on factors that motivate someone to leave that path. A November 2021 publication by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) details some of the research on desistance and outlines implications and recommendations for policy and practice.
by Elizabeth Berger · Dec 14, 2021 12:37 pm
In recent years, many jurisdictions throughout the United States have taken steps to reform their cash bail systems. Proponents of bail reform advocate for reducing or eliminating the use of monetary bail to reduce jail populations and reduce income disparities regarding how bail is applied. However, opponents of bail reform argue that reforms have been extreme, countering that they could result in more defendants failing to appear for court hearings and more defendants committing crimes while on pretrial release.
Among the many states implementing bail reform include California, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Illinois, and Alaska. In addition, many individual jurisdictions have implemented their own bail reform policies, such as Atlanta, Philadelphia, Houston, and Chicago, among others. There is no consensus about what should replace cash bail, though some options include implementing strategies to expand pretrial supervision and services, and requiring pretrial risk assessment instruments to inform pretrial release decisions. However, most research has not found decreases in the rates of missed court dates or rearrests associated with either strategy.
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