Tagged: violent crime

Lower crime rates don’t automatically make us safer

by · Mar 23, 2022 11:47 am

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous impact on nearly every aspect of our day-to-day lives, ranging from economic distress, to disrupted schooling, and public health impacts. Relatedly, changes in crime rates have been perplexing. While overall crime rates were down by about 15% in 2020 relative to 2019, homicides saw an unprecedented increase of 29.4%. Further, aggravated assaults also increased (+12.0%), as did motor vehicle theft (+11.8%). Certain crimes became less prevalent though, with decreases in rape (-12.0%), larceny-theft (-10.6%), robbery (-9.3%), and burglary (-7.4%). Even more perplexing is that, according to some research, some cities saw increases in reported shooting incidents (e.g., Chicago, +23.0%; New York City, +11.7%), while others saw decreases (e.g., Los Angeles, -9.3%). 

These contradictory numbers are confusing. If you look at changes in the crime rate, it only presents a small part of the issue. A new paper by Maxim Massenkoff of the Manhattan Institute explains why the crime rate isn’t a useful statistic to understand what happened to public safety in 2020. 

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Homicides continued to rise during 2021

by · Jan 27, 2022 9:21 am

As many people have reported, there was a drastic increase in violent crime (particularly driven by homicide increases) from 2019 to 2020. Not surprisingly, people are interested to know whether this pattern continued into 2021, and if so, to what extent.

A recent report published by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) attempts to shed light on this by collating information on crimes occurring in 2021 from a subset of 27 United States cities. Trends for individual crime types presented in the report do coincide with other estimates in terms of the overall pattern witnessed in 2021. However, the sample size of 27 cities is very small, meaning that their estimates (especially for homicide) are smaller in magnitude and likely do not reflect the full extent of the problem.

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How gang violence contributes to homicide rates: Study

by · Jan 25, 2022 11:29 am

Violent behavior is commonly associated with gangs and the nature of gang homicides often differs when compared with non-gang homicides. For example, gang homicides are affected by relationships between gangs and are often driven by violent acts of retaliation, or out of fear. Further, gang homicides have an influence on the cycle of victimization that impacts relationships between gangs, violent acts of revenge, and safety. These dynamics can also be affected by a plethora of factors (e.g., social, economic, political, cultural, behavioral) that are salient within a specific area or neighborhood. These factors influence things like subcultures of violence and levels of gang membership, which unsurprisingly can increase the gang homicide rates. Understanding these dynamics is very important for addressing homicides nationwide.

A recently published 2022 study in Deviant Behavior sought to do this using a nationwide sample generated by the National Youth Gang Survey (NYGS). In the study, the authors examined the probability of gang-related homicides in relation to various community and local factors related to gang violence. The results showed that drug-related factors as well as inter- and intra-gang conflict were the most likely to increase the probability of gang-related homicides in a jurisdiction. While many factors may influence the likelihood of gang violence, it appears that specific factors are more likely to result in more serious issues such as homicide.

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How environmental stress increases violent crime: Study

by · Dec 21, 2021 1:59 pm

Understanding the social contexts of violent crime remains controversial among researchers and policymakers alike. A recent article published in Crime and Delinquency (2021) discusses common social contexts in four cities (Houston, TX, Baltimore, MD, Jackson, MS, Wilmington, DE). The researchers applied two approaches: the first compared each city’s health outcomes with national county-level data, and the second examined correlates for crime within the four cities.

Results found several social factors that correlated with crime, including single-parent homes, insufficient food resources, poor sleep quality, residential segregation, and more. Interestingly though, all four cities had lower suicide rates than the national average. At the community-level, researchers found that factors such as unemployment, median household income, and population density all correlated with crime as well. While communities with higher violent crime rates did tend to have higher proportions of Black residents, race per se did not appear correlated with violent crime. Rather, class-related issues seemed to override any individual impact of race on crime.

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Antecedents and consequences of de-policing

by · Nov 12, 2021 10:47 am

De-policing is a term that refers to a reduction in proactive policing strategies, and it tends to coincide with officers’ fears of becoming ‘the next viral incident’ and/or criminal prosecution. The de-policing effect seemed to start around 2014 after a viral shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, and hence, it is sometimes referred to as the “Ferguson Effect.” Since then, increased circulation of viral videos from body-worn camera footage and cell phone videos on the internet seem to have exacerbated the effect. The Manhattan Institute released a report recently discussing the research on de-policing effects and qualitative findings from interviews with police officers, and main findings indicated that de-policing seems to be associated with low police morale/motivation and fear of becoming involved in a viral use of force incident. Officer morale also decreases when officers feel less supported by their communities.

Simultaneously, there has been criticism of officers pulling back and being less proactive, saying that it is correlated to recent increases in homicides and violent crime. On September 27, 2021, the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) released preliminary findings that revealed that violent crime is up, with a violent crime rate of 387.8 per 100,000 — a 5.2% increase when compared with 2019 rates (380.8 per 100,000). The violent crime increase appears to be driven by increases in aggravated assaults (+12.0%) and murders (+29.4%), whereas rates for other violent crimes (i.e., robbery, rape) decreased from 2019 to 2020 (-9.3% and -12.0%, respectively). While overall crime rates are lower than they have been in previous years, homicides and shootings are higher than normal, and this trend appears to be continuing into 2021. As stated above, many argue that the “de-policing effect” increases violent crime in certain cities. Additionally, the “defund the police” movement does not help this problem, as it simply limits law enforcement access to technology and/or other resources that could effectively reduce crime.

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Childhood lead exposure: Does it lead to crime?

by · Sep 30, 2021 10:17 am

The “lead-crime hypothesis” argues that childhood exposure to lead is a primary driver of criminal behavior from childhood into adulthood. The reasoning behind the theory is that childhood lead exposure correlates with behavioral traits (e.g., aggression and impulsivity), which can increase motivations for criminal behavior. The idea has circulated among academics and the general public. Several careful well-designed studies have found that lead exposure affects crime rates, but debates continue regarding how strong the relationship is. As current levels of lead exposure are already dramatically lower than they were decades ago, it is unlikely that major improvements in nationwide crime rates would result from further eradication of lead pipes and service lines. Continue reading . . .

Preliminary 2020 crime data shows increase in homicides and aggravated assaults

by · Sep 27, 2021 11:23 am

Today the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) released preliminary findings of their soon to be released annual report, Crime in the United States: 2020. While the final publication has not yet been released, the data can be accessed through the Crime Data Explorer. Additionally, publications from prior years are accessible online.

The preliminary data revealed that violent crime is up for the first time in four years, with 1,277,696 violent crimes reported to United States law enforcement in 2020. The violent crime rate (which accounts for population size) was 387.8 per 100,000 — a 5.2% increase when compared with 2019 rates (380.8 per 100,000). The violent crime increase appears to be a result of increases in aggravated assaults (+12.0%) and murders (+29.4%). However, not all types of violent crime increased from 2019 to 2020 — robbery decreased 9.3% and rape (revised definition) decreased 12.0%. Conversely, property crime is down, with 6,452,038 property crimes reported to law enforcement in 2020. The property crime rate (again, accounting for population size) was 1958.2 per 100,000, which decreased 8.1% when compared with 2019 rates (2130.6 per 100,000). The decrease in property crime appears to be driven by decreases in burglary (-7.4%) and larceny-theft (-10.6%). In contrast, auto thefts increased (+11.8%). It is important to note that crimes of arson are not included in property crime estimates, due to disparities in the agencies that submitted data for arson.

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Promising options for increasing homicide clearance rates

by · Jul 27, 2021 9:08 am

Clearance rates for criminal investigations are a prominent component of offense deterrence. When offenders are not apprehended, the potential deterrent effect of sanctions is diminished and police legitimacy undermined. Clearance rates for serious crimes in the United States have remained essentially unchanged over the last four decades despite decreases in the index crime rate (and more recently, increases in the homicide rate specifically). Moreover, this is surprising considering how technology has advanced during this time. Data from the Uniform Crime Report shows that the nationwide homicide clearance rate decreased from approximately 83% in 1965 to 61% in 2007. It has stabilized in the last decade, with most recent estimates showing 62% in 2018. Hypothesized reasons for declines in clearance rates include an increase in the proportion of homicides involving strangers (e.g. gang- and drug-related violence as opposed to intimate relationship violence), declining societal support for police efforts, and increased regulation of police practices.

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