{"id":3039,"date":"2021-03-03T11:51:09","date_gmt":"2021-03-03T19:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.crimeandconsequences.blog\/?p=3039"},"modified":"2021-03-03T13:18:15","modified_gmt":"2021-03-03T21:18:15","slug":"da-gascon-and-what-studies-show","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.crimeandconsequences.blog\/?p=3039","title":{"rendered":"DA Gasc\u00f3n and What “Studies Show”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Do “studies show” that longer prison sentences increase recidivism?<\/p>\n

Los Angeles District Attorney George Gasc\u00f3n’s Special Directive 20-08 says:<\/p>\n

While initial incarceration prevents crime through incapacitation, studies show that each additional sentence year causes a 4 to 7 percent increase in recidivism that actually outweighs the incapacitation benefit. 1<\/sup>
\n—————————
\n1<\/sup> Mueller-Smith, Michael (2015) \u201cThe Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration.\u201d, available at https:\/\/sites.lsa.umich.edu\/mgms\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/283\/2015\/09\/incar.pdf<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Note the plural, “studies show.” Despite the plural, Gasc\u00f3n has never, to my knowledge, cited anything other than this one unpublished manuscript. In his opposition to the ADDA writ petition, he merely referred back to the Special Directive, incorporating its citation to the same article. Prof. Mueller-Smith lists this article on his U. Mich. page <\/a>as “Revise and Resubmit at the\u00a0American Economic Review<\/em>.” Apparently the editors of that journal had some problems with it.<\/p>\n

The claim “studies show” tends to imply that a survey of the literature in the field supports the proposition stated. That implication is not correct. The Mueller-Smith paper is an outlier. I am presently reviewing the literature and have yet to find a single published study that provides solid support for the proposition that longer incarceration actually causes an overall, substantial increase in recidivism.<\/p>\n

First, everyone should be aware that social studies are not really “sciences,” despite their renaming a few decades back. Nothing can really be proved<\/em> in the same way that we prove things in physics or biology: through controlled, reproducible experiments. The difference was vividly illustrated last year when early, uncontrolled, observational studies (the only kind that exist for criminal justice questions) indicated certain treatments for Covid-19 were effective, only to be disproved when the definitive controlled studies came in.<\/p>\n

That said, decisions need to be made, and it is better to make decisions illuminated by whatever light empirical studies may shine rather than shooting in the dark. We must always keep in mind though, the limitations of the studies. We need to know what we do not know.<\/p>\n

Why does Mr. Gasc\u00f3n rely on an unpublished manuscript rather than a published article of similar vintage such as Mears, Cochran, Bales & Bhati, Recidivism and Time Served in Prison<\/em><\/a>, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 83-124? JCLC some time back dropped any semblance of neutrality and has become a megaphone for one side. It would be a good place to look for support of Mr. Gasc\u00f3n’s thesis if any existed.\u00a0 Yet this article fails to support the proposition that Mr. Gasc\u00f3n wants supported:<\/p>\n

Prison stays may be criminogenic, they may reduce offending, or they may vary in their effect, depending on the amount of time served and the balance of criminogenic and deterrent or rehabilitative experiences incurred during a prison stay. The bulk of work to date suggests that time served in prison may exert mixed effects on recidivism, though more recent work suggests that the effect may be minimal. As reviews and studies have highlighted, it remains the case that few rigorous empirical assessments of the time served and recidivism relationship exist, and fewer still have assessed whether the relationship is curvilinear.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In other words, the answer to the question “do longer prison sentences increase, decrease, or have no effect on recidivism?” is “it’s complicated, and we don’t know a lot.” That is the “wrong” answer to support Mr. Gasc\u00f3n’s agenda.<\/p>\n

Few, if any, of those of us on the tough-on-crime side have suggested that reducing the recidivism of the particular criminal is a reason for a long prison sentence. Our primary reasons have been incapacitation and retribution. That is (1) locking a criminal up greatly reduces his ability to commit crimes, and executing him eliminates it altogether, and (2) the violent thug deserves it.<\/p>\n

Mr. Gasc\u00f3n cannot deny the protective effect of incapacitation. To maintain the myth that soft policies actually promote<\/em> public safety, he must concoct a countervailing effect. He must assert that not only do long prison sentences increase recidivism, the effect is so strong that it outweighs the protective effect of incapacitation. That is exactly what he asserts in the Special Directive quoted above.<\/p>\n

To support this counter-intuitive proposition, he comes up with a grand total of one unpublished manuscript.<\/p>\n

No, the studies on the whole do not show an effect of the direction and magnitude that Mr. Gasc\u00f3n claims. Not even close. A full review of the literature is in progress. Stay tuned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do “studies show” that longer prison sentences increase recidivism? Los Angeles District Attorney George Gasc\u00f3n’s Special Directive 20-08 says: While initial incarceration prevents crime through incapacitation, studies show that each additional sentence year causes a 4 to 7 percent increase in recidivism that actually outweighs the incapacitation benefit. 1 ————————— 1 Mueller-Smith, Michael (2015) \u201cThe Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration.\u201d, available at https:\/\/sites.lsa.umich.edu\/mgms\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/283\/2015\/09\/incar.pdf. Note the plural, “studies show.” Despite the plural, Gasc\u00f3n has never, to my knowledge, cited anything other than this one unpublished manuscript.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sentencing"],"yoast_head":"\nDA Gasc\u00f3n and What "Studies Show" - Crime & Consequences<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Do "studies show" that longer prison sentences increase recidivism? 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