The Myth That Crime is Down

President Biden issued a statement yesterday to take credit for the widely reported FBI data for 2023 showing a significant decline in crime.  The New York Times noted that “The latest data is consistent with earlier preliminary reports from the F.B.I., and with research from other organizations and criminologists, all showing continuing declines in most crime, including murder.” If this is true, why doesn’t the public believe it. As the Times notes: “a Gallup poll last year found that 77 percent of Americans believed crime was rising, even though it was actually falling.” Perhaps the FBI data does not accurately reflect what’s actually happening in the real world that most Americans are living in.

Jeffery Anderson, a former head of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics makes that case in a September 22 Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal.  He cites another report released earlier this month, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which paints an entirely different picture. The annual survey asks 230,000 people across the country if they, or someone they know has been a victim of crime. The type of crime that occurred, details about the offender, and whether or not they reported the crime to the police. That survey found that violent crime in cities increased by 40% from 2019 to 2023. While there was no significant change in urban violent crime from 2022 to 2023, property crime increased by 9%. The survey does not compile data on urban shoplifting or commercial burglary, but other indicators show these crimes have reached epidemic levels.

In rural America violent crime has not changed between 2022 and 2023, which indicates that the recent crime spike is primarily in cities.

There are other problems with relying on the FBI data. The data only covers law enforcement agencies that report their crime numbers to the FBI, and many large agencies such as the Los Angeles and Oakland Police Departments do not participate.  The FBI data also does not account for crimes not reported to police.  As the NCVS shows, most crimes are not reported.  According to the survey, 55% of violent crimes and 70% of property crimes were not reported . This suggests that the national media and politicians, especially those pushing soft-on-crime policies, are grossly under reporting the impact of those policies on public safety.   I include think tanks like the Public Policy Institute which don’t look beyond the data on crimes reported to police.

Finally, while the FBI data is incomplete and unpolished, a look beyond the national figures to individual states can indicate where most of the crime is occurring.  The chart below tracks reported violent crimes in California.  Does it look like crime is going down?