“2020’s Spike in Urban Homicides Should Not Be a Mystery”

It’s not news by now that last year saw a dramatic surge in murder across the country.  As recounted by this National Review article: “In 2020, homicides increased by 35 percent from 2019 across the 50 largest urban areas, reaching levels in many cities not seen for more than 20 years.”  But why?  “Some in the media suggest the spike is simply another downside of the pandemic. But this would appear to gloss over the likely link to unintended consequences of the nationwide demonstrations after George Floyd’s death in the custody of Minneapolis police.”

Unintended consequences indeed.  As the author explains, when you legitimate rage at society, you can’t be surprised when the outcroppings of rage arrive on your doorstep.

The piece notes:

Conservatives have offered two explanations [for the murder spike]. First, they contend that, across many cities, police departments reacted after Floyd’s death by pulling back from proactive initiatives. Analyzing past crime data, Tanaya Devi and Roland Fryer identified cities that had a viral episode of lethal police force. They estimated that, as a result of the reduction of proactive policing, there were over 900 excess deaths. Second, conservatives claim that many violent felons quickly return to the streets because of recent decriminalization and bail-reform initiatives. In Philadelphia, first-time offenders caught with an illegal gun are charged with a misdemeanor, and even a second offense can be pleaded down to another misdemeanor.

This past year’s homicide data seem consistent with these claims. The three cities with particularly high increases were Milwaukee (96 percent), Louisville (78 percent), and Minneapolis (72 percent). These were the sites of the three most publicized cases of police misconduct. Another group — Seattle (68 percent), Memphis (58 percent), and Atlanta (55 percent) — also had viral incidents. Aggressive criminal-justice-reform initiatives in Chicago (55 percent), New York (41 percent), and Philadelphia (41 percent) may explain their above-average increases.

What is perhaps most valuable about the article, however, is that it takes a sympathetic view of some of the most acerbic race-based criticism of police behavior  —  for example, from Cornel West and Ta-Nehisi Coates  —  but still concludes that taking responsibility for one’s own behavior is the central ingredient for turning things around:

But this attitude [focusing obsessively on the effects of racism] denies the possibility that the system or individuals are capable of self-correction. In fact, there are policies that can make a difference. President-elect Joe Biden should demand, for example, that cities reinstitute meaningful penalties for illegal gun possession. Increased leniency has only worsened the situation. Why should residents [tell the police about] those who commit crimes or possess illegal guns when they will be released without bail and face only misdemeanors, for which they will receive suspended sentences? Such leniency can only breed arrogance and invincibility in some offenders. Reinstating effective judicial measures would more accurately balance compassion with the rule of law. It would also be more consistent with the majority of black Americans who desire the same or more policing in their neighborhoods, not less. Only then can communities overcome senseless violence.