Covid-19 and Economic Hardship are not Responsible for Spike in Murder Rates

A blog post by Hans Bader of Liberty Unyielding presents a comparison between the United States and Latin America in response to the notion that the rise in homicide rates in 2020 is a result of the pandemic and citizens being desperate for means to support themselves. Bader notes, “In reality, murder rates fell in much of the world during the pandemic. People’s situation was far more desperate in Latin America, where the pandemic left many people without adequate food, yet murder did not increase in many Latin American nations.”  While in the United States homicides greatly increased in many major cities.

Bader also noted that during the Recession of 2007-2009 there was no significant increase in murder rates.  If the economy being negatively impacted by this pandemic were the cause in the rise in homicide rates, then that pattern would have been visible during the Recession. A factor worth considering is the relationship between a decrease in policing and police numbers and the increase in crime, specifically violent crimes. In an article in the National Review Said Jilani discusses how ‘defunding’ the police during this pandemic could very well have a strong correlation to the rise in homicides. Jilani presents a study that analyzes this relationship between policing and crime by looking at two comparable cities in New Jersey; one which had a major layoff of police and the other did not in response to the Recession. Jilani explains the researchers found that in the city that did not cut their police force, both property and violent crime rates continued to decline during the Recession while in the city that cut their police department saw an increase in violent crime rates. Jilani points out, “Some locales, such as Wilmington, Del., saw a record number of homicides last year. St. Louis, Mo., long one of America’s most violent spots, saw its highest rate of killing in 50 years.” 

Although the pandemic has caused a rift in the U.S. economy, it cannot be the only cause for the rise in homicide rates, or this would be a pattern seen globally as the pandemic has effect many other countries economically. The explanation for the steep rise in homicide rates is more layered with multiple elements to be examined before conclusions can be drawn.