by Elizabeth Berger · Aug 1, 2023 12:10 pm
Last week, the city of Vallejo, California officially declared a state of emergency due to its lack of police officers, Daniel Egitto of the Vallejo Times-Herald reports. Over the last several months, the Vallejo Police Department (VPD)’s officer shortage has been worsening, with five officers leaving since March, and another three scheduled to leave within the next month.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 26, 2023 12:17 pm
Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.
by Elizabeth Berger · May 25, 2023 12:35 pm
The question of racial bias in police traffic stops is a highly debated issue. Some analyses have shown that certain racial or ethnic groups are disproportionately represented in traffic stops, leading many people to allege racial profiling and discrimination. However, it is not accurate or fair to claim that all police traffic stops are inherently racist. Other factors can contribute to racial disparities in police stops, including differences in driving behavior, geographic location, and crime rates in specific areas. As more research is conducted on this topic, it becomes more apparent how much context and other factors can play a role in traffic stop decisions. For example, research that adequately accounts for the impact of contextual and situational factors has found that racial disparities may not be as pronounced as previously thought, and that they are often explained by other factors unrelated to race.
This was the case in a recent study examining traffic stops in Pennsylvania, which found no evidence of racial profiling. According to the full-length report, the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) stopped more than 440,000 drivers in 2022, 78.5% of whom white. In comparison, 14.4% were Black, and 8.2% were Hispanic. To conduct the study, the PSP partnered with Dr. Robin Engel and the National Police Foundation to ensure that the evaluation was independent and external to the department. Overall, these data should inspire public confidence in the police. It also suggests that PSP’s approach could serve as a promising model for other agencies.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jan 30, 2023 1:53 pm
Findings from the California’s Racial & Identity Profiling Advisory (RIPA) Board’s Annual Report released earlier this month have sparked controversy after the results revealed that nonwhites are dispropotionately represented in police stops. The report also claimed that, of those stopped, nonwhites were searched more frequently, arrested more frequently, and more frequently engaged in physical confrontations with police officers. This led many people to conclude that the police are in fact, racist. However, it’s important to note that the practice of policing is far more complicated than what can be captured in datasets. While these data appear straightforward, studying racial bias is complicated.
There are myriad contextual factors at play that affect officer decisionmaking and police-citizen interactions, such that it is nearly impossible to attribute racial disparities solely to any one cause. Unfortunately, contextual factors are often not easily measured, or they might be ignored on the basis that these details are “less important.” But ignoring these key details leaves us with an incomplete understanding of the dynamics influencing these police encounters. So when it comes to the RIPA Board’s report, the findings seem straightforward, but a closer look shows some holes in the methodology that likely undermine the validity of the findings. To this end, the Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC) conducted a critical analysis of the report that highlighted numerous problems with the RIPA data and the methodology used in the report. In this post, I will summarize the key issues raised by the PORAC.
by Elizabeth Berger · Nov 22, 2022 10:53 am
The FBI released official 2021 crime statistics last month, but the data leaves major gaps in our understanding of national-level crime rates. Unfortunately, the numbers are incomplete this year because 36% of U.S. law enforcement agencies, some of them major cities, failed to submit their crime reports. This is largely because the FBI made major changes to the way that it collects crime data, making the submission process much more complicated. Rather than following the arduous process, many agencies simply declined to participate in last year’s data collection. In comparison, 2020 crime statistics included data from 85% of U.S. law enforcement agencies.
This post briefly reviews agency participation rates and discusses what that means for our current understanding of national-level crime. Then, using data from the years 2017-2020 (all of the years for which data from both systems are available), I examine whether the two systems produce similar violent crime estimates. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · Nov 7, 2022 11:47 am
Crime has become a big issue in the U.S. midterm elections. According to a recent Gallup poll, crime ranked as the second most important issue among voters, with 71% of registered voters saying it was either “extremely” or “very” important to their vote. This came second after the economy, which 85% of voters said would be extremely or very important to their vote. According to a different Gallup survey released a few weeks ago, more than half of Americans (56%) said there was more crime in their area compared to a year ago. According to Gallup, “That’s up a whopping 11 points from 2021 and 18 points from 2020, and is the highest mark ever measured.” This issue was a concern across party lines, with 73% of Republicans, 51% of Independents, and 42% of Democrats all agreeing that crime is getting worse (in 2020, these percentages were 38%, 38%, and 37%, respectively).
by Elizabeth Berger · Oct 21, 2022 7:29 am
Earlier this month, the FBI released the national-level crime statistics for 2021. According to that data, violent crime, particularly murder, remained a major issue in the United States. Crime remained relatively consistent from 2020 to 2021 with no statistically significant changes between years, though violent crime was still elevated compared to 2019 levels. From 2020 to 2021, national levels of violent crime decreased slightly (-1.0%), largely driven by decreases in robbery (-8.9%). Murders, however, increased (+4.3%). The data is available for download via the Crime Data Explorer, or it can be accessed using a new tool called the Law Enforcement Agency Reported Crime Analysis Tool (LEARCAT). But the data this year may be lower quality than years past, limiting our ability to draw inferences about national-level crime rates.
Policymakers and researchers rely on these data to understand state and national crime trends, but that may be more challenging this year. Unfortunately, the FBI’s plan to modernize its reporting of crime data has not gone according to plan, so it’s hard know how accurate these 2021 estimates are. The new system has advantages over the old system, but it is much more cumbersome and time-consuming to use, which has negatively impacted law enforcement agencies’ willingness to submit their data. And because of these low participation rates, there are huge gaps in nationwide crime statistics for 2021.
by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 9, 2022 2:20 pm
Earlier this week, the FBI released the first quarter of crime data for 2022. There has been no official government report published at this time, though I examined the data to get an idea of whether crime increased or decreased relative to the first quarter of 2021. Unfortunately, I was unable to compare the data to quarter one of 2019 and 2020 as those data are not currently available by quarter.
Rates for all types of crime remained relatively stable, though this may change as we head into the summer. Larceny offenses saw the largest increase, which was only a mere 0.08%, and overall property crime increased 0.05%. The largest decrease was for arson, which decreased by about 0.2%. Rates for murder decreased by .08% (see more details in the table below).
by Elizabeth Berger · Jun 9, 2022 10:04 am
On May 31, 2022, the FBI released national-level statistics on police use of force for the first time ever. These data were derived from the National Use-of-Force Data Collection, which is the first national-level dataset to collect data on police use of force. Law enforcement agencies are not required to submit their data though, so participation rates have been a consistent issue that has prevented the release of information up until this point. The FBI has been reporting on participation rates, but because participation rates have been below the required 60% threshold (up until now), it was unclear whether details on actual use-of-force data would ever be released. Relatedly, there was speculation that lack of participation might even cause the database to shut down.
by Elizabeth Berger · Apr 7, 2022 3:14 pm
At present, the government does not mandate the reporting of lethal force by police departments, and there is no official number of the number of people killed by police annually. The National Use-of-Force Data Collection is the first national-level attempt to offer big-picture insights on police use of force but it is still in its infancy, and participation rates have been so low that the database may shut down.
But thanks to researchers at University of Southern California (USC) Dornsife, a new open-source database on police-involved fatalities has emerged and preliminary findings have recently been released.
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