by Kent Scheidegger · Jan 17, 2022 2:32 pm
There is hypothesis that a pullback in policing activity following high-profile arrest incidents and subsequent protests and riots causes an increase in crime. This has been dubbed the “Ferguson Effect,” after the location of one particularly high-profile incident.
But is it real? Charles Fain Lehman has this article in the City Journal reviewing two recent studies. Continue reading . . .
by Bill Otis · Sep 8, 2021 4:07 pm
That’s one of the most important questions any sensible person would ask in considering whether criminals are sentenced too harshly, or (relatedly) whether their existing sentences should be shortened by mass clemency or other expedients such as First Step Act re-sentencing. After all, we should be guided by “facts” and “data,” not emotion, right? Emotion is, after all, the province of revenge-driven right-wing kooks, while reliance on criminal justice “data” is the specialty of the more tempered among us.
Well OK then, let’s look at the data. What do they tell us?
In brief, they tell us that, in overwhelming numbers, after they’re released, criminals get back in the crime business. Most of them return fast, and over time, close to all of them return to harming us, our property, and our right to live in peace and safety.
by Kent Scheidegger · Aug 13, 2021 3:16 pm
In May, the California Dept. of Corrections and Rehabilitation put into effect regulations that greatly increased the credits that violent criminals can earn to shorten their sentences. Sam Stanton of the Sacramento Bee has this article on a lawsuit by 45 district attorneys (out of 58 in the state) to invalidate these regulations.
I will have more to say about this suit later, but right now I want to focus on a statement by a supporter of the regulations that illustrates the kind of pseudoscientific posturing that is rampant in policy debates today. Continue reading . . .
by Amber Westbrook · May 19, 2021 11:32 am
The Wall Street Journal has this article by Jason Riley addressing a few early outcomes we are seeing as a result of lowering prosecution rates and defunding law enforcement in many large cities across the U.S. Riley points out the following:
In New York City, shooting and homicides rose by 97% and 44%, respectively, in 2020, and felony assaults are up by 25% this year. Yet seven of the eight candidates running in the Democratic primary for Manhattan district attorney have pledged to cut the police budget or prosecute fewer suspects—or some combination of the two. Baltimore began defunding law enforcement and turning a blind eye to criminal behavior a decade ago, and since then nearly 3,000 of its residents have been murdered.
by Bill Otis · Apr 28, 2021 7:55 pm
No one doubts that there was a murder spike across the United States last year. To find out how bad it was and where, the following bar graph will be useful.
by Kent Scheidegger · Apr 20, 2021 10:33 am
Eric Siddall, VP of the (Los Angeles) Association of Deputy District Attorneys has this article debunking DA George Gascón’s assertion that the “science and data” show that his soft sentencing policies will actually improve public safety.
CJLF is presently working on a literature review of this area, which we expect to have in working paper form in the next couple of weeks. Continue reading . . .
by Michael Rushford · Mar 19, 2021 9:41 am
CJLF Legal Director Kent Scheidegger was interviewed yesterday (3/18) on the Los Angeles drive-time talk leader KFI’s John & Ken Show. The subject: the so-called science DA George Gascón cites to support his soft-on-criminals policies. The interview is during hour three of the podcast at this link.
by Michael Rushford · Mar 18, 2021 11:31 am
New York City’s five police unions issued a statement this week citing the state’s bail reform law, which took effect in 2020, as the cause of last year’s 47% increase in murders and 100% increase in shootings. Rocco Parascandola of the New York Daily News has this story, quoting the head of the Police Benevolent Association, “Our cops on the street warned us that it was happening. We warned the politicians that this (bail reform) won’t work. Violence will rise. And it has.”
by Bill Otis · Feb 1, 2021 11:07 am
My longtime friend, former colleague in the USAO, former US District Judge, and now distinguished law professor Paul Cassell takes a look. He concludes, “While a new report released today by the Council on Criminal Justice downplays the role anti-police protests played in last year’s unprecedented homicide spike, a decline in pro-active policing following the protests remains the most likely cause.”
Full disclosure: I am a member of the Council on Criminal Justice (as I believe is Paul), but we’re in the small minority favoring the sober Reagan/Bush/Bill Clinton approach to crime. The Council’s Report is here.
by Kent Scheidegger · Jan 15, 2021 1:58 pm
For many years on this blog I have denounced claims that a “disparity” between the percentage of a given racial or ethnic group subject to some criminal justice action and the percentage of the group in the general population supports an inference that bias in the system is the reason. I call this the Fallacy of the Irrelevant Denominator. The makeup of the general population is irrelevant because the general population is mostly law-abiding people, while serious criminal justice consequences are for people who have committed serious crimes.
Yesterday, the Bureau of Justice Statistics released a study that confirms what I have been saying as applied to violent crimes. Continue reading . . .
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