Monthly Archive: December 2022

Sentencing Length and Recidivism: A Review of the Research

by · Dec 5, 2022 2:49 pm

We previously announced a working paper, Sentence Length and Recidivism: A Review of the Research, in May 2021 and announced an update last June. We are pleased to announce that the review has now been published in a peer-reviewed journal, Federal Sentencing Reporter, in the October issue. (Vol. 35, No. 1) The permanent link to the published version is https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2022.35.1.59. The paper is also available on CJLF’s website.

Here is the abstract:

In response to prison overcrowding concerns in recent years, many U.S. officials have undertaken efforts to reduce sentence lengths for certain crimes. However, it is unclear how these changes affect recidivism rates. Among the research on incarceration and recidivism, the majority of studies compare custodial with noncustodial sentences, while fewer examine the impact of varying incarceration lengths. This article reviews the research on the latter. Overall, the effect of incarceration length on recidivism appears too heterogeneous to draw universal conclusions, and findings are inconsistent across studies due to methodological limitations. For example, many study samples are skewed toward people with shorter sentences while others include confounds that render results invalid. Of the studies reviewed, some suggested that longer sentences provide additional deterrent benefits in the aggregate, though some studies also had null effects. None suggested a strong aggregate-level criminogenic effect. We argue that a conclusion that longer sentences have a substantial criminogenic effect, large enough to offset incapacitative effects, cannot be justified by the existing literature.

That last sentence is important. Continue reading . . .

SCOTUS Monday

by · Dec 5, 2022 8:14 am

The U.S. Supreme Court has issued an orders list from last week’s conference. No new cases were taken up. There are no criminal cases on this week’s oral argument docket.

The Court currently seems to be less interested in criminal law issues than in past years. To some extent, no news is good news. Federal constitutional limitations on state criminal law run only in the defendant’s favor. In addition, changes in the law in the defendant’s favor often have retroactive effect, while changes in the prosecution’s favor rarely do. So lack of change is, at least in part, good for law enforcement.

On the other hand, there are a lot of rules with no real basis in the Constitution that one might think that an originalist-dominated Supreme Court would want to get rid of. One possible explanation is that the Court has a sort of budget for turmoil and has spent it all in other fields for the time being. That could change as the storms from last term’s decisions subside. Continue reading . . .

CA Gives Thousands of Sex Offenders Early Release

by · Dec 1, 2022 11:04 am

An investigative report by Josh Boswell of the Daily Mail discovered that thousands of sex offenders are being release from California prisons and jails after serving only a fraction of their sentences.  Using the search function in the state’s Megan’s Law database, which tracks sex offenders in the state, Boswell found that over the past several years over 7,000 offenders convicted of molesting children under 14-years-old spent less than a year behind bars.  This does not include 365 pedophiles convicted of continuous sexual abuse of a child, who were also released after less than a year.  The article lists multiple offenders who spend just a few days in jail after conviction.  On example is Gualterio Lopez Contreras, who was convicted of lewd and lascivious acts on a child, for continuous sexual abuse including sodomy by force.  He was sentenced to three years in prison, and walked free after less than a year.

Continue reading . . .

A Fascinating Video on Men and Our Culture

by · Dec 1, 2022 7:16 am

It is well known that the largest factor associated with crime is biological: being a man. However, the etiology of crime in most other respects is driven by culture.  NYU Professor Scott Galloway provides a fascinating interview that covers many topics, including the crisis (and it is a crisis) of masculinity in modern America.  Not all will agree with every point he makes, but it is a sobering account of what is wrong and what can be done.