Poll on LA DA Election

You know an incumbent running for re-election is in deep kimchi when he (1) polls only 15% before the primary and (2) has a “disapprove” job rating from an outright majority and more than double the number who approve. The latest California Elections & Policy Poll* is available here.

Los Angeles County likely voters only, D.A. (MoE for L.A. County, +/-5.9%):

Q. In 2024, there will be an election for District Attorney in Los Angeles
County. Which candidate will you vote for in the 2024 primary election?

15% George Gascón
8% Jonathan Hatami
4% Nathan Hochman
2% Jeff Chemerinsky
2% Craig Mitchell
2% Maria Ramirez
<1% each, all other individual candidates
64% Don’t know

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Gascón is doing as
District Attorney of L.A. County?

24% Approve
51% Disapprove
25% Don’t know

There is a slew of candidates running, essentially, for second place in the Super Tuesday primary, March 5. (It would make a statement if one of them actually topped Gascón, but there is no concrete difference between first and second.) The top two go on the November ballot, nearly certain to be Gascón and someone else. The someone else will likely be a Gascón critic who advocates a tougher-on-crime policy. Of course, 64% is a big “undecided.” Given that 3/4 of the voters have an opinion of Gascón and 2/3 of those have a negative opinion, it is likely that most of these people will vote for one of the tougher candidates but haven’t decided which one yet.

Jim Newton has this article on the candidates at CalMatters. Thomas Buckley has this article in the California Globe.

* University of Southern California Dornsife/Price; Center for Urban Politics and Policy, CSU Long Beach; Cal Poly Pomona; January 21 to 29, 2024