Recidivism of Violent Women

Say “violent criminal” and most people will picture a man, for the obvious and valid reason that the rate of violent crime is much higher for men than women. But there are violent women as well. Today the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics released a report, Recidivism of Females Released from State Prison, 2012–2017. The press release is here. Using a five-year follow-up period, the recidivism rate for violent women was somewhat lower than the corresponding rate for violent men, but still high — 55% versus 66% for men.

For the total sample, not just those committed for a violent offense, 63% were arrested for a new offense and 16% were arrested for a new violent offense. It would be interesting to know what percentage of those released from commitment for a violent offense were arrested for a new violent offense, but that figure is not in the report.

Recidivism rates will vary depending on the length of the follow-up period and whether new arrests, new convictions, or returns to prison are counted as “recidivism.” However you slice it, though, there are two constants: First, the rates are persistently high. Second, the true recidivism rate, the percentage of released criminals who commit new offenses, is unknown and unknowable but certainly higher than the rate that can be measured.

For all the talk of rehabilitating criminals, we simply do not know how to do it. The best presently available efforts can only tweak the rates at the margins. Claims that we can safely release large numbers of criminals because we have rehabilitated them are dangerous nonsense.