Indirect Consequences of Crime

Shopping Closures Map from SF Chronicle

A huge but common mistake in public policy is to consider only the direct effects of a policy and ignore the indirect effects. Crime harms the direct victims most, but ultimately the indirect effects corrode the structure of society.

San Francisco’s once-famous shopping scene is imploding, and crime is a major reason why.

In the latest blow to downtown, Nordstrom, an upscale anchor store in the Westfield San Francisco Centre, will depart at the end of its lease.

Chase DiFeliciantonio reports in the San Francisco Chronicle:

In an email statement, a Westfield spokesperson said the “planned closure of Nordstrom underscores the deteriorating situation in downtown San Francisco. A growing number of retailers and businesses are leaving the area due to the unsafe conditions for customers, retailers, and employees, coupled with the fact that these significant issues are preventing an economic recovery of the area.”

Crime is not the only factor, of course. Brick-and-mortar retail was in decline before the Covid pandemic as more people shopped online. During the pandemic, many more people worked from home, impacting the businesses that catered to people who live elsewhere and work downtown. Recovering from these trends is not easy anywhere, but the laxity of law enforcement in California generally and San Francisco in particular has intensified the problem.

In the years before the pandemic, the people of California were deceived into voting for two billionaire-backed, soft-on-crime ballot propositions. With huge imbalances in campaign funding, proponents were able to convince the people that these measures would actually improve public safety. The years since, the California Legislature has passed one bill after another to reduce the consequences to criminals of their choice to commit crimes. Proposition 47 of 2014 was particularly harmful to retail stores, reducing the consequences of shoplifting so far as to leave stores virtually defenseless.

Annie Gaus and Kevin Truong report on the condition of the neighborhood in the San Francisco Standard.

Westfield mall is also at the nexus of problems that, if not unique, are particularly pronounced in stretches of Downtown San Francisco.

Echoing statements from other businesses in the area, the Westfield mall and its owner, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, said that the closure “underscores the deteriorating situation in Downtown San Francisco.”

Less than a month ago, a nearby Whole Foods abruptly shuttered, citing employee safety concerns. The Whole Foods had made regular emergency calls since it opened in March 2022 for a mix of medical crises, assaults and other incidents; in September of last year, a man fatally overdosed in a bathroom at the grocery store.

Last week, a Walgreens store next to Westfield mall was the scene of a fatal shooting after a private security guard allegedly shot a shoplifter.

Public policy in recent years has been intent on relieving criminals from the consequences of their crimes, with reckless disregard of the consequences to society of the lawlessness and disorder that inevitably results. Relief for the criminal who chose to commit the crime at the expense of law-abiding people who did not is the essence of injustice, yet injustice has been the policy for the last decade. It is high time to stop this madness and return to sound policy and common sense.