Exploring early 2023 homicide trends in U.S. cities

Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.

According to some, the most likely explanation comes down to policy choices. While this has yet to be proven empirically, there are a few interesting examples.

New York City, the largest metropolis in the country, has experienced a 12.5 percent decrease in murders through early June 2023. At the same time, Mayor Eric Adams has been directing the New York Police Department (NYPD) to target two significant contributors to violence and homicides: guns and gangs. This focused approach, coupled with the city’s agreement with the Police Benevolent Association, which provides better working conditions and incentives to retain officers, has been instrumental in reversing the recruitment and retention crisis faced by many cities in the aftermath of the “Defund the Police” movement.

Baltimore witnessed a 33 percent decline in homicides and non-fatal shootings in 2022, a trend that so far, continues into 2023. Baltimore’s success correlates with implementation of a Group Violence Reduction Strategy, focusing on specific gangs responsible for a majority of the violence. This approach combines law enforcement attention with social service resources, demonstrating its effectiveness in reducing violence nationwide and typically garnering bipartisan support.

In stark contrast, Washington D.C. has witnessed a string of misguided policies in recent years that seem to correlate with increased crime rates. In 2020, the city council reduced the D.C. police budget, and subsequent attempts to lower penalties for serious crimes, including carjacking, were rejected by the United States Congress and President Joe Biden. Most recently, the council passed a bill that further reduces funding to the Washington Metropolitan Police Department, placing additional constraints on officers and compromising community safety. Prior to 2020, the city would usually reach its 100th homicide by October, but this milestone is being reached sooner and sooner each year. By June 7, 2023, the city had already reached 100 homicides — 4 months earlier than what has previously been considered “typical” for the city.

Unfortunately, official data for 2023 homicides has not yet been released. However, preliminary data for 70 large police agencies was reported by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) back in April. The MCCA is a professional organization of police executives that advocates for the advancement of public safety through innovation, research, and policy development. The results presented in their report were collected as part of an annual survey of their membership, which included 70 of the largest jurisdictions in the U.S. Agencies reported the number of aggravated assaults, homicides, rapes, and robberies that occurred during January-April 2023 and for the same time period one year prior (from January-April 2022). While these data are preliminary, they do come from a credible source (i.e., the police departments themselves). However, it is possible that numbers could fluctuate if some cases are later reclassified as negligent homicide or justifiable homicide.

The results showed a bit of variation among cities regarding homicide counts, with some cities reporting large increases and other cities reporting large decreases.  Comparing the first quarter of 2023 with the first quarter of 2022, they noted a drop in homicide for many, but not all, United States cities. Of the 70 agencies surveyed, 60% (n=42) saw decreases, about 33% (n=23) saw increases, and 7% (n=5) saw no change.

2023 Preliminary Homicide Rates

To gain a better understanding of the numbers provided, I decided to convert the counts into rates. This conversion is important because it takes into account the population size of each city. By computing the homicide rate per 100,000 people for each city, we can better compare crime trends across different cities. For instance, a large city like New York may have a high number of homicides simply due to its large population, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the homicide rate is high when adjusted for population size. The chart below shows the homicide rates for January-April 2023. The highest homicide rates were seen in New Orleans, Memphis, Baltimore, Kansas City, and St. Louis. The lowest rates were seen in Omaha, Nassau County, Suffolk County, Honolulu, and Los Angeles County.

Percent Change in Homicides: 2023 vs. 2022

Comparing 2023 to 2022, 23 cities saw increases in homicide rates, while 5 cities saw no change, and 42 cities saw decreases. These are depicted in the chart below. The ten cities with the largest increases were St. Louis (+6.03 per 100,000), Memphis (+3.23), San Antonio (+3.15), Phoenix (+2.64), Columbus (+1.55), Sacramento (+1.48), Kansas City (+1.26), Austin (+1.12), Nashville (+1.11), and Boston (+0.99). The ten cities with the largest decreases were Atlanta (-4.76 per 100,000), Cincinnati (-2.47), Baltimore (-2.46),  Wichita (-2.11), Pittsburgh (-2.0), Raleigh (-1.93), Fresno (-1.9), Milwaukee (-1.83), Long Beach (-1.6), and Buffalo (-1.52).

As discussed above, one possible reason for the differences could be related to policymaking, but it’s hard to say for sure. Large decreases in Atlanta were surprising, especially consider that the city had a major uptick the year prior. The police chief attributes it to the police department’s willingness to crack down on certain crimes, like drug dealing, gang activity, and illegal possession of guns, which are all known to be linked to violent crime rates. In St. Louis, there was a large increase in the homicide rate, but this has also been the case for the last several years, so it is hard to pinpoint an exact cause.

Conclusion

While several cities have demonstrated success in reducing the murder rate, it’s still difficult to pinpoint a reason. Crime increased dramatically from 2019 through 2021, so it’s possible that some of the “reductions” we are seeing now reflect the fact that extreme observations are likely to become less extreme over time and move closer to the average (i.e., “regression to the mean”). Crime trends are typically a multifactorial problem with a combination of factors, some of which are probably related to policy decisions. This probably explains why there is so much variation between cities. In a future post, we will look into some of these different factors to explore which ones are most correlated with the dramatic shifts in crime that we have seen in recent years.