Tagged: crime data

Police resources and crime solving: A closer look at clearance rate trends in California

by · Nov 8, 2024 2:20 pm

A recent report by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) tried to take a stand by exposing poor clearance rates of California law enforcement agencies. They specifically argue that police staffing levels and police spending do not translate to improved clearance rates and actually increase crime.

While clearance rates are an important metric for measuring police effectiveness, the conclusions of the CJCJ report are questionable because the analysis lacks depth and overlooks critical factors related to clearance rates. In this post, I’ll provide additional context to offer a more balanced perspective on the relationship between police resources, clearance rates, and crime rates. Continue reading . . .

Prop 47’s impact on crime in California

by · Oct 24, 2024 2:37 pm

When California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014, the goal was noble: decrease incarceration rates for nonviolent offenders and redirect resources towards rehabilitation and public safety programs. The measure reclassified certain felonies to misdemeanors, thereby lowering the severity of penalties for certain offenses, and has been touted as a revolutionary step in California’s criminal justice reform. Proponents argued that this would lead to reduced recidivism and better community outcomes. However, a decade later, the reality is far from the success story many hoped for. A recent paper by the Manhattan Institute discusses some of the ways in which Prop. 47 has negatively impacted public safety and health and put strain on county resources.

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Decoding Prop 47: What recent audit findings reveal about the impact in San Bernardino and Riverside counties

by · Aug 23, 2024 2:29 pm

If you’ve been following California’s criminal justice reforms, you’re likely familiar with Proposition 47. Passed in 2014, Prop. 47 reclassified certain nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, with the main goal of alleviating pressures on the state’s prison system by decreasing incarceration rates for nonviolent crimes. Reclassified offenses include drug possession, forgery, as well as instances of burglary, theft, and shoplifting wherein the stolen property amounts to less than $950.

Proponents believe that reducing incarceration rates for nonviolent offenses can lead to better rehabilitation outcomes and more efficient use of public resources, while critics argue that it has caused an increase in theft and drug-related crimes as well as an increase in reoffending. A recent audit by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee delves into how this measure has played out in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. In this post, I’ll break down the key takeaways from this extensive audit.

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Unpacking the truth: California’s reforms and crime data accuracy

by · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm

In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.

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Unveiling the impact of depolicing on crime: Insights from Denver’s neighborhoods

by · Mar 1, 2024 3:45 pm

A new research study published in Criminology examined the impact of sudden and sustained reductions in proactive policing (i.e., “de-policing”) on violent crime across neighborhoods in Denver, Colorado, leveraging the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest after the murder of George Floyd as exogenous shocks. The study utilized multilevel models to analyze the impact of large-scale reductions in police stops and drug-related arrests on violent and property crime in the city.

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Analyzing homicide trends: Republican vs. Democratic leadership

by · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .

California violent crime up 6.2% in last year: 2022 data released

by · Jul 14, 2023 8:50 am

In a recent release, California Attorney General Rob Bonta released 2022 crime statistics for the state, revealing a 6.2% increase in the violent crime rate compared to 2021. The report, “Crime in California 2022,” also noted a 6.2% increase in the property crime rate. In this post, I discuss the findings from this report and display the data points graphically.

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Exploring early 2023 homicide trends in U.S. cities

by · Jun 26, 2023 12:17 pm

Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.

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New York’s bail reform law and recidivism

by · Mar 29, 2023 2:31 pm

In recent years, many states throughout the nation have taken steps to reduce or eliminate the use of monetary bail. According to proponents, the purpose of bail “reform” is to reduce jail populations and decrease income disparities regarding how bail is applied. However, critics believe that such laws would negatively impact public safety due to more defendants committing crimes while on pretrial release. Further, there also concerns that reforms could increase failure-to-appear rates.

One state where bail reform has received considerable attention is New York. Statewide reforms first took effect on January 1, 2020, though it was later amended in April 2020 and May 2022. Currently, there isn’t a ton of research examining whether bail reform contributed to crime, but more research is starting to trickle out on this topic. There seems to be a lot of variaiton regarding the findings though. One of the more recent reports on this topic was published earlier this month by the Data Collaborative for Justice (DCJ), which claimed that bail reform decreased recidivism among pretrial releases in New York City. However, this is inconsistent with a previous study from last year, also conducted in New York City, which found the opposite: bail reform efforts significantly increased recidivism. Thus, it’s important to read these studies very carefully to determine which ones are the most relevant and helpful. In this post, I will review the latest report released by the DCJ and provide my thoughts regarding its validity.

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The problem with reducing reliance on incarceration: A commentary on Vera’s “new paradigm” on sentencing

by · Feb 16, 2023 2:06 pm

The United States should move away from incarceration and ultimately work toward a system that creates “real safety,” according to a new, widely circulated report from the Vera Institute of Justice. In the report, the authors claim that severe sentences do not deter crime nor help survivors of crime heal, and therefore are not achieving their intended purpose. However, the argument seems to be rooted in emotion rather than facts. The research actually presents a more nuanced picture.

The controversy regarding incarceration is not new, and has remained a major topic of debate in recent years. Clearly, there are many different opinions regarding the utility of incarceration and its effectiveness, many of which are emotionally-driven and not rooted in facts. Rather, the research on incarceration presents a very nuanced picture. It is simply naive to think that any one policy would be 100% effective or 0% effective, and these types of “all-or-nothing” arguments are often rooted in emotion rather than facts.

In this post, I’ll give an overview of the lengthy report’s executive summary and give my thoughts regarding their key points. Stay tuned for part two of this post, where I will perform a deeper assessment of the report in its entirety.

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