Tagged: crime rate

Prop 47’s impact on crime in California

by · Oct 24, 2024 2:37 pm

When California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014, the goal was noble: decrease incarceration rates for nonviolent offenders and redirect resources towards rehabilitation and public safety programs. The measure reclassified certain felonies to misdemeanors, thereby lowering the severity of penalties for certain offenses, and has been touted as a revolutionary step in California’s criminal justice reform. Proponents argued that this would lead to reduced recidivism and better community outcomes. However, a decade later, the reality is far from the success story many hoped for. A recent paper by the Manhattan Institute discusses some of the ways in which Prop. 47 has negatively impacted public safety and health and put strain on county resources.

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Unpacking the truth: California’s reforms and crime data accuracy

by · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm

In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.

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Analyzing homicide trends: Republican vs. Democratic leadership

by · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .

California violent crime up 6.2% in last year: 2022 data released

by · Jul 14, 2023 8:50 am

In a recent release, California Attorney General Rob Bonta released 2022 crime statistics for the state, revealing a 6.2% increase in the violent crime rate compared to 2021. The report, “Crime in California 2022,” also noted a 6.2% increase in the property crime rate. In this post, I discuss the findings from this report and display the data points graphically.

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Exploring early 2023 homicide trends in U.S. cities

by · Jun 26, 2023 12:17 pm

Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.

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Comparing nationwide violent crime estimates: Summary-based vs. incident-based reporting

by · Nov 22, 2022 10:53 am

The FBI released official 2021 crime statistics last month, but the data leaves major gaps in our understanding of national-level crime rates. Unfortunately, the numbers are incomplete this year because 36% of U.S. law enforcement agencies, some of them major cities, failed to submit their crime reports. This is largely because the FBI made major changes to the way that it collects crime data, making the submission process much more complicated. Rather than following the arduous process, many agencies simply declined to participate in last year’s data collection. In comparison, 2020 crime statistics included data from 85% of U.S. law enforcement agencies.

This post briefly reviews agency participation rates and discusses what that means for our current understanding of national-level crime. Then, using data from the years 2017-2020 (all of the years for which data from both systems are available),  I examine whether the two systems produce similar violent crime estimates. Continue reading . . .

Violent crime is a key issue for U.S. midterm election

by · Nov 7, 2022 11:47 am

Crime has become a big issue in the U.S. midterm elections. According to a recent Gallup poll, crime ranked as the second most important issue among voters, with 71% of registered voters saying it was either “extremely” or “very” important to their vote. This came second after the economy, which 85% of voters said would be extremely or very important to their vote. According to a different Gallup survey released a few weeks ago, more than half of Americans (56%) said there was more crime in their area compared to a year ago. According to Gallup, “That’s up a whopping 11 points from 2021 and 18 points from 2020, and is the highest mark ever measured.” This issue was a concern across party lines, with 73% of Republicans, 51% of Independents, and 42% of Democrats all agreeing that crime is getting worse (in 2020, these percentages were 38%, 38%, and 37%, respectively).

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California’s overall crime rates are down, but numbers don’t reveal the whole story

by · Sep 7, 2022 2:56 pm

In a previous post, we announced that California Attorney General Rob Bonta has officially released state crime data for 2021. He eagerly noted that violent and property crime rates are well below the historic highs seen in the mid-1990s, but whistled past the fact that violent crime rates have been slowly climbing since the early 2000s. The contradictory shifts in violent crime versus property crime are somewhat perplexing. While overall crime rates might be down, violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and homicides, have been increasing.

Looking at the numbers all together, it is important to keep in mind: all crimes are not created equal in the harm they cause. For example, homicides are a relatively rare event, yet they are much more harmful than high-frequency crimes like larceny. For example, an increase of 500 thefts would be a small change in the overall number of thefts and would have little overall impact on public safety, whereas an increase of 500 homicides would be a large change in the overall number of homicides and have a very detrimental impact on public safety. By looking at crime statistics though, these nuances can be overshadowed.

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Misleading “study” claims that DA Schubert’s term led to increased crime

by · Jun 8, 2022 2:00 pm

A new report released last week by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) by Mike Males compares crime trends between Sacramento and San Francisco. The report’s narrative is fairly evident in the title: “Tough Talking Sacramento District Attorney Presides Over Homicide and Violence While Liberal San Francisco Enjoys Major Decreases.” To summarize, the report claims that Sacramento has seen major increases in homicide and violence while under the leadership of a conservative District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, while San Francisco has seen major decreases in crime due to their progressive reforms and liberal District Attorney Chesa Boudin.

In other words, CJCJ concludes that liberal leadership reduces crime while conservative leadership increases it. But the report is riddled with methodological shortcomings that render it meaningless in being able to determine cause and effect. In this post, I review the key findings of the report and outline the methodological problems that undermine these findings.

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National Crime Victimization Survey re-design shows improvements over previous iterations

by · Mar 10, 2022 10:51 am

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) maintains a research program known as the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) that measures and tracks nonfatal victimizations in the United States. The NCVS is an official source of crime data and the primary source of unreported crime. It collects detailed information on the frequency and nature of several offenses, including: rape, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, larceny, burglary, trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft.

Recently, BJS has undertaken several efforts to increase the efficiency, reliability, and utility of the NCVS. First was a revamp in the urbanicity measure used to classify areas as rural, suburban, or urban. Second, the NCVS also began collecting subnational estimates to help make data more precise. Third, the NCVS survey was completely re-designed to help improve validity of the estimates. Based on recently released reports, it appears that the revised version of the NCVS shows clear improvements over the previous version. In this post, I will discuss these improvements (and why they matter) in more detail.

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