by Berger · Aug 1, 2025 9:55 am
Not all crimes are reported to the police, and according to data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), where a person lives significantly influences reporting rates. A recent BJS publication analyzes data from the 2020–2023 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to examine how crime reporting behavior differs across urban, suburban, and rural areas.
by Berger · Jul 9, 2025 11:14 am
Concerns about retail theft in California have grown in recent years, with implications for businesses as well as the broader economic climate and the sense of safety across communities. In response, California lawmakers and voters have enacted several legal reforms aimed at curbing theft. A recent report from the California Legislative Analyst’s Office breaks down what we know about retail theft trends over the past decade, explores potential contributing factors, and reviews how recent policy changes may have affected these trends.
by Berger · Jun 30, 2025 4:36 pm
The federal Justice Reinvestment Initiative (JRI), launched in 2010 and funded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA), was designed to help states reduce prison populations through legislative reform and evidence-based practices. The initiative offers grant funding as an incentive for states to revise sentencing, pretrial, and community supervision policies. The core idea is to save money by reducing incarceration and reinvesting those savings into local, community-based programs that address root causes of criminal behavior, such as mental health and substance use issues, with the ultimate goal of lowering recidivism.
Despite these aims, there is limited evidence that JRI reforms have consistently achieved their intended outcomes. While many state programs report success in reducing their prison populations, these analyses often rely on superficial data and overlook critical metrics such as public safety. The lack of rigorous evaluation, narrow definitions of “success,” and inconsistent implementation have led to growing concerns—especially about whether offenders released under JRI reforms are adequately supervised.
A recent report published by CJLF critically assesses the impact of JRI, exploring the shortcomings of its implementation in various states. Policymakers are urged to adopt a more cautious, evidence-based approach, including piloting programs and closely monitoring outcomes to ensure public safety is not compromised in the name of reform.
by Berger · Jun 2, 2025 10:34 am
The United States experienced a sharp rise in homicide rates during 2020–2021, prompting widespread research into one of the most significant crime surges on record. A recently published study by the Manhattan Institute analyzed homicide patterns in 78 large cities, identifying shifts in city-level trends and exploring links to policing disruptions, social unrest, and pandemic-related economic changes. While the study was not designed to evaluate criminal justice reform initiatives, its findings have implications for understanding the social context in which many of these programs were implemented.
Researchers found that the spike in homicides was tended to be more severe in cities and communities already struggling with high baseline violence, with contributing factors including reduced police staffing, disrupted public services, and concentrated group-related gun violence. Surprisingly, unemployment shifts during the pandemic were not consistent predictors of rising homicides, challenging common assumptions.
by Berger · Oct 24, 2024 2:37 pm
When California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014, the goal was noble: decrease incarceration rates for nonviolent offenders and redirect resources towards rehabilitation and public safety programs. The measure reclassified certain felonies to misdemeanors, thereby lowering the severity of penalties for certain offenses, and has been touted as a revolutionary step in California’s criminal justice reform. Proponents argued that this would lead to reduced recidivism and better community outcomes. However, a decade later, the reality is far from the success story many hoped for. A recent paper by the Manhattan Institute discusses some of the ways in which Prop. 47 has negatively impacted public safety and health and put strain on county resources.
by Berger · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm
In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.
by Berger · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm
In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .
by Berger · Jul 14, 2023 8:50 am
In a recent release, California Attorney General Rob Bonta released 2022 crime statistics for the state, revealing a 6.2% increase in the violent crime rate compared to 2021. The report, “Crime in California 2022,” also noted a 6.2% increase in the property crime rate. In this post, I discuss the findings from this report and display the data points graphically.
by Berger · Jun 26, 2023 12:17 pm
Since 2015, American cities have faced a troubling surge in homicides and shootings, leading to the loss of numerous lives across the nation. Official crime statistics for the first quarter of 2023 have yet to be released, but preliminary data from some U.S. cities is starting to be released. Some cities suggest a glimmer of hope with a reduction in homicides during the early months of 2023, which is encouraging. But, it seems to be driven by a few major cities, while some cities have actually seen upticks in crime.
by Berger · Nov 22, 2022 10:53 am
The FBI released official 2021 crime statistics last month, but the data leaves major gaps in our understanding of national-level crime rates. Unfortunately, the numbers are incomplete this year because 36% of U.S. law enforcement agencies, some of them major cities, failed to submit their crime reports. This is largely because the FBI made major changes to the way that it collects crime data, making the submission process much more complicated. Rather than following the arduous process, many agencies simply declined to participate in last year’s data collection. In comparison, 2020 crime statistics included data from 85% of U.S. law enforcement agencies.
This post briefly reviews agency participation rates and discusses what that means for our current understanding of national-level crime. Then, using data from the years 2017-2020 (all of the years for which data from both systems are available), I examine whether the two systems produce similar violent crime estimates. Continue reading . . .
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