Crime & Consequences

Category: Studies and Statistics

New LAPD Chief Wants More Reporting of Crime

by · Nov 18, 2024 9:20 am

Speaking of a new day in LA, former County Sheriff Jim McDonnell is now the City Chief of Police. Richard Winton reports in the LA Times that the new chief expressed concern that the actual crime rate is higher than the official figures show because the people are reporting fewer of the crimes that are committed. This is a problem with crime statistics that we have noted many times on this blog.

Crime is trending down in Los Angeles, with homicides alone on track to fall 15% compared to last year, but newly sworn-in LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell is concerned that statistics aren’t telling the full story.

Speaking ahead of the ceremony Thursday to mark his arrival as the city’s 59th chief of police, McDonnell voiced concern about the perception of disorder — and the reality that crimes are going unreported because some believe nothing will be done to investigate. Continue reading . . .

Police resources and crime solving: A closer look at clearance rate trends in California

by · Nov 8, 2024 2:20 pm

A recent report by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) tried to take a stand by exposing poor clearance rates of California law enforcement agencies. They specifically argue that police staffing levels and police spending do not translate to improved clearance rates and actually increase crime.

While clearance rates are an important metric for measuring police effectiveness, the conclusions of the CJCJ report are questionable because the analysis lacks depth and overlooks critical factors related to clearance rates. In this post, I’ll provide additional context to offer a more balanced perspective on the relationship between police resources, clearance rates, and crime rates. Continue reading . . .

Prop 47’s impact on crime in California

by · Oct 24, 2024 2:37 pm

When California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014, the goal was noble: decrease incarceration rates for nonviolent offenders and redirect resources towards rehabilitation and public safety programs. The measure reclassified certain felonies to misdemeanors, thereby lowering the severity of penalties for certain offenses, and has been touted as a revolutionary step in California’s criminal justice reform. Proponents argued that this would lead to reduced recidivism and better community outcomes. However, a decade later, the reality is far from the success story many hoped for. A recent paper by the Manhattan Institute discusses some of the ways in which Prop. 47 has negatively impacted public safety and health and put strain on county resources.

Continue reading . . .

Can cognitive behavioral therapy reduce criminal behavior?

by · Oct 10, 2024 10:10 am

In recent years, the conversation around reforming the criminal justice system has grown increasingly urgent, with various stakeholders advocating for the expansion of rehabilitation programs that can help reduce recidivism. Among these approaches, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has emerged as a potential tool for addressing problematic behaviors associated with criminal behavior. A newly-released paper by the Manhattan Institute provides a thorough examination of the effectiveness of CBT in this context, finding that while CBT can yield modest benefits, it is not a panacea.

Continue reading . . .

Crime Victim Survey 2023

by · Sep 12, 2024 1:46 pm

The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics has released the 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey. After increases in 2022, the rates were nearly the same as the past year, with violent crimes down 1/1000* and property crimes up the same amount.

The rates at which victims reported crimes to the police rose from 41.5% to 44.7% for violent crimes and fell from 31.8% to 29.9% for property crimes. For thefts other than cars, less than a quarter of crimes committed are now reported to the police. Continue reading . . .

Decoding Prop 47: What recent audit findings reveal about the impact in San Bernardino and Riverside counties

by · Aug 23, 2024 2:29 pm

If you’ve been following California’s criminal justice reforms, you’re likely familiar with Proposition 47. Passed in 2014, Prop. 47 reclassified certain nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, with the main goal of alleviating pressures on the state’s prison system by decreasing incarceration rates for nonviolent crimes. Reclassified offenses include drug possession, forgery, as well as instances of burglary, theft, and shoplifting wherein the stolen property amounts to less than $950.

Proponents believe that reducing incarceration rates for nonviolent offenses can lead to better rehabilitation outcomes and more efficient use of public resources, while critics argue that it has caused an increase in theft and drug-related crimes as well as an increase in reoffending. A recent audit by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee delves into how this measure has played out in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. In this post, I’ll break down the key takeaways from this extensive audit.

Continue reading . . .

Unpacking the truth: California’s reforms and crime data accuracy

by · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm

In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.

Continue reading . . .

The power of communities in crime prevention: Insights from Baltimore

by · Apr 12, 2024 11:08 am

Crime tends to be concentrated in specific areas within cities, with about 50% of crime occurring on just 5% of streets. One police strategy that can help combat this is known as “hot-spot policing,” which has been shown to reduce violent crime in multiple studies.  Another factor that can help reduce crime in an area is when citizens exercise “informal social control.” Informal social control refers to the ability of community members to regulate behavior and maintain order through cohesive relationships, mutual trust, and willingness to intervene.  It involves residents taking actions to prevent and address crime and disorder in their neighborhoods.

One common assumption is that the chatoic and disordered nature of high-crime hot spots renders residents incapable of playing a significant role in crime prevention. However, a new study conducted in Baltimore seems to reveal otherwise.

Continue reading . . .

Unveiling the impact of depolicing on crime: Insights from Denver’s neighborhoods

by · Mar 1, 2024 3:45 pm

A new research study published in Criminology examined the impact of sudden and sustained reductions in proactive policing (i.e., “de-policing”) on violent crime across neighborhoods in Denver, Colorado, leveraging the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest after the murder of George Floyd as exogenous shocks. The study utilized multilevel models to analyze the impact of large-scale reductions in police stops and drug-related arrests on violent and property crime in the city.

Continue reading . . .

Recidivism trends in California: New CDCR report

by · Feb 21, 2024 2:55 pm

Recidivism rates are down, according to a new report by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR). In a press release accompanying the report, they state that “the report marks the second year of data showing the effects of the passage of Proposition 57, and the findings point to lower recidivism rates for those who earned credits from participation and completion of rehabilitative programming.”  But this statement is misleading. While the data showed a slight decrease in recidivism rates, correlation does not equal causation, and this would be an overly simplistic interpretation of the data. There are other factors that could have contributed to recidivism rates, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which influenced crime rates and caused many court closures and temporary suspensions of intakes and transfers to CDCR, which likely influenced recidivism measures in this report. The report did not rigorously evaluate the impacts of Prop 57, and therefore, the findings are not sufficient to demonstrate a casual relationship between Prop 57 and reduced recidivism rates. Continue reading . . .