Category: Studies and Statistics

Police Stops and Naïve Denominators

by · Aug 11, 2025 12:19 pm

In their 2025 article published in Crime Science, Jerry Ratcliffe and Shelley Hyland critically examine how reported racial disparities in police stop data can be misleading. They argue that much of the misrepresentation stems from the widespread use of an inappropriate baseline, or “denominator,” when calculating stop rates.

Typically, analysts compare the distribution of police stops across different racial groups to the distribution in the total city population. Unfortunately, this method does not account for differences regarding who is actually more or less likely to encounter police stops. In doing so, this approach ignores important factors such as the uneven geographic distribution of crime and variations in police deployment. According to the authors, by relying on this “naïve denominator,” studies risk overstating racial disparities. Ratcliffe and Hyland’s work challenges researchers, policymakers, and the public to reconsider how police stop data should be interpreted to paint a more accurate and nuanced picture of racial bias in law enforcement.

Continue reading . . .

Understanding retail theft in California

by · Jul 9, 2025 11:14 am

Concerns about retail theft in California have grown in recent years, with implications for businesses as well as the broader economic climate and the sense of safety across communities. In response, California lawmakers and voters have enacted several legal reforms aimed at curbing theft. A recent report from the California Legislative Analyst’s Office breaks down what we know about retail theft trends over the past decade, explores potential contributing factors, and reviews how recent policy changes may have affected these trends.

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A Baltimore Miracle?

by · Jul 9, 2025 8:21 am

Is the infamously violent Baltimore City* on track for a miracle? Joshua Crawford, director of criminal justice initiatives at the Georgia Center for Opportunity, has this op-ed in the Baltimore Sun,** titled “Are we witnessing a Baltimore Miracle in fight against crime?” He notes Baltimore’s sky-high crime rates, followed by dramatic drops beginning in 2023:

Murder declined nearly 22% in 2023, and then another almost 23% in 2024 — erasing all of the post-2014 increases. Through May 1, 2025, homicides were down another 31%, putting Baltimore on pace for its fourth sub-200 murder year since 1970, and the city’s lowest total since the mid-1960s.

This success follows adoption of a three-pronged effort:

First, in January 2022, Mayor Brandon Scott’s office launched its Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS). GVRS is a focused deterrence policing strategy that focuses on violent groups driving violence. It does so by credibly delivering three messages. Respected members of the community convey that violence is unacceptable and must stop, optional services are offered for those who wish to desist from shootings and other gun violence, and finally, predictable, swift, and certain consequences are promised to those whose groups continue to engage in gun violence.

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$380m federally funded Justice Reinvestment Initiative fails to deliver on public safety promises

by · Jun 30, 2025 4:36 pm

The federal Justice Reinvestment Initiative (JRI), launched in 2010 and funded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA), was designed to help states reduce prison populations through legislative reform and evidence-based practices. The initiative offers grant funding as an incentive for states to revise sentencing, pretrial, and community supervision policies. The core idea is to save money by reducing incarceration and reinvesting those savings into local, community-based programs that address root causes of criminal behavior, such as mental health and substance use issues, with the ultimate goal of lowering recidivism.

Despite these aims, there is limited evidence that JRI reforms have consistently achieved their intended outcomes. While many state programs report success in reducing their prison populations, these analyses often rely on superficial data and overlook critical metrics such as public safety. The lack of rigorous evaluation, narrow definitions of “success,” and inconsistent implementation have led to growing concerns—especially about whether offenders released under JRI reforms are adequately supervised.

A recent report published by CJLF critically assesses the impact of JRI, exploring the shortcomings of its implementation in various states. Policymakers are urged to adopt a more cautious, evidence-based approach, including piloting programs and closely monitoring outcomes to ensure public safety is not compromised in the name of reform.

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Understanding the 2020–2021 homicide spike in the U.S.: Causes, variations, and recovery patterns

by · Jun 2, 2025 10:34 am

The United States experienced a sharp rise in homicide rates during 2020–2021, prompting widespread research into one of the most significant crime surges on record. A recently published study by the Manhattan Institute analyzed homicide patterns in 78 large cities, identifying shifts in city-level trends and exploring links to policing disruptions, social unrest, and pandemic-related economic changes. While the study was not designed to evaluate criminal justice reform initiatives, its findings have implications for understanding the social context in which many of these programs were implemented.

Researchers found that the spike in homicides was tended to be more severe in cities and communities already struggling with high baseline violence, with contributing factors including reduced police staffing, disrupted public services, and concentrated group-related gun violence. Surprisingly, unemployment shifts during the pandemic were not consistent predictors of rising homicides, challenging common assumptions.

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Culture, Crime, and Statistics

by · May 10, 2025 8:59 am

Barry Latzer, Emeritus Professor of Criminology at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, has this letter on culture and crime statistics in the Wall Street Journal.

If economic gains are associated with rising crime and economic downturns with declining crime, the prevailing theories of crime causation need rethinking. Indeed it seems the relationship between crime and economic conditions is unpredictable, and cultural values play a central role in the extent of violent behavior by various social groups.

Professor Latzer is too modest. The prevailing theories have already been rethought. By him. Continue reading . . .

Canadian Study Finds Length of Incarceration Decreases Recidivism

by · Mar 4, 2025 1:54 pm

Simon Fraser University in British Columbia has this press release announcing this study in the Journal of Criminal Justice regarding the effect of sentence length on recividism. Overall, studies on this issue have mixed results and generally show little effect either way, as Elizabeth Berger and I describe in this article, which is cited in the new article.

Here is the abstract: Continue reading . . .

Study Suggests Drunk Witnesses Are Less Likely to Remember a Suspect’s Face

by · Feb 19, 2025 6:09 pm

The University of Portsmouth, England, has this press release announcing this unsurprising result. “New research has revealed that alcohol can impair the ability of eyewitnesses to accurately recall a suspect’s facial features, particularly key details such as the eyes, nose, and mouth.”

It’s easy to laugh and say “of course” (and I did), but there is some value in research that confirms the obvious. Every once in a while such efforts actually contradict the obvious, and those incidents are important in the progress of science. The research also fills in some details that are not quite so obvious. Continue reading . . .

The Effectiveness of Rehabilitation Programs: Do they really work?

by · Feb 13, 2025 8:33 am

For over a century, policymakers and researchers have tried to rehabilitate criminal offenders. Despite these efforts, recidivism rates remain stubbornly high.

A newly-released report by the Manhattan Institute challenges optimistic claims about rehabilitation programs. The authors argue that most programs’ success is exaggerated by political rhetoric. In reality, many programs do not operate as intended and have less than ideal success rates. While some high-rate offenders do turn their lives around, the authors stress that predicting who will desist from criminal activities—and when—remains a complex challenge.

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