by Kent Scheidegger · Mar 4, 2025 1:54 pm
Simon Fraser University in British Columbia has this press release announcing this study in the Journal of Criminal Justice regarding the effect of sentence length on recividism. Overall, studies on this issue have mixed results and generally show little effect either way, as Elizabeth Berger and I describe in this article, which is cited in the new article.
Here is the abstract: Continue reading . . .
by Kent Scheidegger · Feb 19, 2025 6:09 pm
The University of Portsmouth, England, has this press release announcing this unsurprising result. “New research has revealed that alcohol can impair the ability of eyewitnesses to accurately recall a suspect’s facial features, particularly key details such as the eyes, nose, and mouth.”
It’s easy to laugh and say “of course” (and I did), but there is some value in research that confirms the obvious. Every once in a while such efforts actually contradict the obvious, and those incidents are important in the progress of science. The research also fills in some details that are not quite so obvious. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · Feb 13, 2025 8:33 am
For over a century, policymakers and researchers have tried to rehabilitate criminal offenders. Despite these efforts, recidivism rates remain stubbornly high.
A newly-released report by the Manhattan Institute challenges optimistic claims about rehabilitation programs. The authors argue that most programs’ success is exaggerated by political rhetoric. In reality, many programs do not operate as intended and have less than ideal success rates. While some high-rate offenders do turn their lives around, the authors stress that predicting who will desist from criminal activities—and when—remains a complex challenge.
by Kent Scheidegger · Nov 18, 2024 9:20 am
Speaking of a new day in LA, former County Sheriff Jim McDonnell is now the City Chief of Police. Richard Winton reports in the LA Times that the new chief expressed concern that the actual crime rate is higher than the official figures show because the people are reporting fewer of the crimes that are committed. This is a problem with crime statistics that we have noted many times on this blog.
Crime is trending down in Los Angeles, with homicides alone on track to fall 15% compared to last year, but newly sworn-in LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell is concerned that statistics aren’t telling the full story.
Speaking ahead of the ceremony Thursday to mark his arrival as the city’s 59th chief of police, McDonnell voiced concern about the perception of disorder — and the reality that crimes are going unreported because some believe nothing will be done to investigate. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · Nov 8, 2024 2:20 pm
A recent report by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) tried to take a stand by exposing poor clearance rates of California law enforcement agencies. They specifically argue that police staffing levels and police spending do not translate to improved clearance rates and actually increase crime.
While clearance rates are an important metric for measuring police effectiveness, the conclusions of the CJCJ report are questionable because the analysis lacks depth and overlooks critical factors related to clearance rates. In this post, I’ll provide additional context to offer a more balanced perspective on the relationship between police resources, clearance rates, and crime rates. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · Oct 24, 2024 2:37 pm
When California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014, the goal was noble: decrease incarceration rates for nonviolent offenders and redirect resources towards rehabilitation and public safety programs. The measure reclassified certain felonies to misdemeanors, thereby lowering the severity of penalties for certain offenses, and has been touted as a revolutionary step in California’s criminal justice reform. Proponents argued that this would lead to reduced recidivism and better community outcomes. However, a decade later, the reality is far from the success story many hoped for. A recent paper by the Manhattan Institute discusses some of the ways in which Prop. 47 has negatively impacted public safety and health and put strain on county resources.
by Elizabeth Berger · Oct 10, 2024 10:10 am
In recent years, the conversation around reforming the criminal justice system has grown increasingly urgent, with various stakeholders advocating for the expansion of rehabilitation programs that can help reduce recidivism. Among these approaches, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has emerged as a potential tool for addressing problematic behaviors associated with criminal behavior. A newly-released paper by the Manhattan Institute provides a thorough examination of the effectiveness of CBT in this context, finding that while CBT can yield modest benefits, it is not a panacea.
by Kent Scheidegger · Sep 12, 2024 1:46 pm
The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics has released the 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey. After increases in 2022, the rates were nearly the same as the past year, with violent crimes down 1/1000* and property crimes up the same amount.
The rates at which victims reported crimes to the police rose from 41.5% to 44.7% for violent crimes and fell from 31.8% to 29.9% for property crimes. For thefts other than cars, less than a quarter of crimes committed are now reported to the police. Continue reading . . .
by Elizabeth Berger · Aug 23, 2024 2:29 pm
If you’ve been following California’s criminal justice reforms, you’re likely familiar with Proposition 47. Passed in 2014, Prop. 47 reclassified certain nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, with the main goal of alleviating pressures on the state’s prison system by decreasing incarceration rates for nonviolent crimes. Reclassified offenses include drug possession, forgery, as well as instances of burglary, theft, and shoplifting wherein the stolen property amounts to less than $950.
Proponents believe that reducing incarceration rates for nonviolent offenses can lead to better rehabilitation outcomes and more efficient use of public resources, while critics argue that it has caused an increase in theft and drug-related crimes as well as an increase in reoffending. A recent audit by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee delves into how this measure has played out in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. In this post, I’ll break down the key takeaways from this extensive audit.
by Elizabeth Berger · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm
In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.
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