A Baltimore Miracle?

Is the infamously violent Baltimore City* on track for a miracle? Joshua Crawford, director of criminal justice initiatives at the Georgia Center for Opportunity, has this op-ed in the Baltimore Sun,** titled “Are we witnessing a Baltimore Miracle in fight against crime?” He notes Baltimore’s sky-high crime rates, followed by dramatic drops beginning in 2023:

Murder declined nearly 22% in 2023, and then another almost 23% in 2024 — erasing all of the post-2014 increases. Through May 1, 2025, homicides were down another 31%, putting Baltimore on pace for its fourth sub-200 murder year since 1970, and the city’s lowest total since the mid-1960s.

This success follows adoption of a three-pronged effort:

First, in January 2022, Mayor Brandon Scott’s office launched its Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS). GVRS is a focused deterrence policing strategy that focuses on violent groups driving violence. It does so by credibly delivering three messages. Respected members of the community convey that violence is unacceptable and must stop, optional services are offered for those who wish to desist from shootings and other gun violence, and finally, predictable, swift, and certain consequences are promised to those whose groups continue to engage in gun violence.

Here at CJLF, we are primarily focused on the prosecution and punishment portion of crime reduction. The other elements are important, though. Culture is a factor that needs much more consideration and discussion than it gets. See this post and this post. Of course, changing culture is a very difficult thing to do, and it requires efforts outside of government. But it needs to be done, and we should be talking about it more.

The third prong required dumping Baltimore City’s notorious State’s Attorney, Marilyn Mosby. Ivan Bates took the office on January 3, 2023. Crawford notes:

And that prosecution component has ramped up considerably since 2023. With the election of Ivan Bates as Baltimore City state’s attorney, prosecutions of serious gun violence rose dramatically. In 2023, his first year in office, felony gun cases increased 12% over his predecessor’s final year in office, while incarcerations for those charges were up nearly 121%. Homicide convictions increased 70% over that period.

What a difference a real prosecutor makes.

* Baltimore City is a separate jurisdiction from surrounding Baltimore County, and it has a separate State’s Attorney.

** The Sun requires a email address for access, and providing it signs you up for a newsletter. I keep several disposable email addresses for such purposes.