Tagged: research

Unsubstantiated Claims for Effectiveness of Rehabilitation Programs

by · Sep 5, 2025 2:23 pm

Corrections officials often claim that their rehabilitation programs are “evidence-based.” For example, a recent report by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) found that participants in enhanced alternative custody programs (EACPs) recidivated at a lower rate than nonparticipants. The report’s accompanying press release painted the results as a clear win for the program. This framing is misleading because the evidence doesn’t hold up under closer scrutiny.

In a recently published Research in Brief, we raise doubts about these claims of effectiveness, noting how the report presents descriptive statistics rather than causal evidence.

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Understanding retail theft in California

by · Jul 9, 2025 11:14 am

Concerns about retail theft in California have grown in recent years, with implications for businesses as well as the broader economic climate and the sense of safety across communities. In response, California lawmakers and voters have enacted several legal reforms aimed at curbing theft. A recent report from the California Legislative Analyst’s Office breaks down what we know about retail theft trends over the past decade, explores potential contributing factors, and reviews how recent policy changes may have affected these trends.

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$380m federally funded Justice Reinvestment Initiative fails to deliver on public safety promises

by · Jun 30, 2025 4:36 pm

The federal Justice Reinvestment Initiative (JRI), launched in 2010 and funded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA), was designed to help states reduce prison populations through legislative reform and evidence-based practices. The initiative offers grant funding as an incentive for states to revise sentencing, pretrial, and community supervision policies. The core idea is to save money by reducing incarceration and reinvesting those savings into local, community-based programs that address root causes of criminal behavior, such as mental health and substance use issues, with the ultimate goal of lowering recidivism.

Despite these aims, there is limited evidence that JRI reforms have consistently achieved their intended outcomes. While many state programs report success in reducing their prison populations, these analyses often rely on superficial data and overlook critical metrics such as public safety. The lack of rigorous evaluation, narrow definitions of “success,” and inconsistent implementation have led to growing concerns—especially about whether offenders released under JRI reforms are adequately supervised.

A recent report published by CJLF critically assesses the impact of JRI, exploring the shortcomings of its implementation in various states. Policymakers are urged to adopt a more cautious, evidence-based approach, including piloting programs and closely monitoring outcomes to ensure public safety is not compromised in the name of reform.

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Understanding the 2020–2021 homicide spike in the U.S.: Causes, variations, and recovery patterns

by · Jun 2, 2025 10:34 am

The United States experienced a sharp rise in homicide rates during 2020–2021, prompting widespread research into one of the most significant crime surges on record. A recently published study by the Manhattan Institute analyzed homicide patterns in 78 large cities, identifying shifts in city-level trends and exploring links to policing disruptions, social unrest, and pandemic-related economic changes. While the study was not designed to evaluate criminal justice reform initiatives, its findings have implications for understanding the social context in which many of these programs were implemented.

Researchers found that the spike in homicides was tended to be more severe in cities and communities already struggling with high baseline violence, with contributing factors including reduced police staffing, disrupted public services, and concentrated group-related gun violence. Surprisingly, unemployment shifts during the pandemic were not consistent predictors of rising homicides, challenging common assumptions.

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Can cognitive behavioral therapy reduce criminal behavior?

by · Oct 10, 2024 10:10 am

In recent years, the conversation around reforming the criminal justice system has grown increasingly urgent, with various stakeholders advocating for the expansion of rehabilitation programs that can help reduce recidivism. Among these approaches, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has emerged as a potential tool for addressing problematic behaviors associated with criminal behavior. A newly-released paper by the Manhattan Institute provides a thorough examination of the effectiveness of CBT in this context, finding that while CBT can yield modest benefits, it is not a panacea.

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Decoding Prop 47: What recent audit findings reveal about the impact in San Bernardino and Riverside counties

by · Aug 23, 2024 2:29 pm

If you’ve been following California’s criminal justice reforms, you’re likely familiar with Proposition 47. Passed in 2014, Prop. 47 reclassified certain nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, with the main goal of alleviating pressures on the state’s prison system by decreasing incarceration rates for nonviolent crimes. Reclassified offenses include drug possession, forgery, as well as instances of burglary, theft, and shoplifting wherein the stolen property amounts to less than $950.

Proponents believe that reducing incarceration rates for nonviolent offenses can lead to better rehabilitation outcomes and more efficient use of public resources, while critics argue that it has caused an increase in theft and drug-related crimes as well as an increase in reoffending. A recent audit by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee delves into how this measure has played out in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. In this post, I’ll break down the key takeaways from this extensive audit.

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Unpacking the truth: California’s reforms and crime data accuracy

by · Aug 15, 2024 5:18 pm

In recent years, the debate surrounding criminal justice reforms in California, has sparked significant discussion. A recent paper by the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice claims that reforms such as Proposition 47 have led to a substantial decrease in property crime rates, citing a 53% reduction since 1995 and a 13% decline in Part I property crimes from 2009 to 2023. While the paper shows real data on reported crime, their analysis is oversimplified and missing several important details, presenting potential flaws in their argument.

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No compelling evidence of racial bias in sentencing, per new meta-analysis

by · Jan 4, 2024 3:46 pm

The question of racial bias in the criminal justice system is a highly debated issue. In recent years, it has become a common belief that the criminal justice system is racially biased, wherein black and Latino defendants receive harsher sentences than whites or Asian defendants. But the empirical research does not fully support these perceptions, according to a recently published meta-analysis (note: a subscription is required for access).

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Prop. 57 and Recidivism: Unveiling the Reality Behind CDCR Claims

by · Aug 24, 2023 2:53 pm

The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) recently released a report revealing a 3% decrease in recidivism among inmates who were released the year following enactment of Proposition 57. This legislation, known as the Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act of 2016, aimed to reduce sentences for inmates participating in rehabilitation programs. CDCR Secretary Jeff Macomber hailed the report as evidence of improved public safety, citing Prop 57 programs as the primary reason for the decrease. However, a closer examination by CJLF raises doubts about these claims. In our newly-released Research in Brief report, we note how the CDCR’s report lacks the necessary rigor to support Macomber’s claim.

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