Author: Kent Scheidegger

Grasping at Statistical Straws

by · Apr 18, 2023 2:11 pm

Graph of California Recidivism Rates

Cal. 3-Year Recidivism Rates for Cohorts Released in 2-Year Periods 2003-2018

This graph shows data on recidivism from the California Dept. of Corrections and Rehabilitation’s most recent report. Each cohort released in a 2-year period is tracked for three years for arrests, convictions, and returns to prison. The blue line is convictions, which CDCR regards as its primary measure. This rate was 44.6% for the 2015-16 cohort. It rose to 47.6% for the 2016-17 cohort. Then for 2017-18 it fell back to where it was for 2015-16. CDCR’s Secretary is crowing that this represents confirmation that post-Prop. 57 “credit-earning opportunities … is [sic] having a positive impact to improve public safety.”

Seriously? Continue reading . . .

Forfeiture Procedure

by · Apr 17, 2023 7:57 am

The U.S. Supreme Court today took up a case on forfeiture procedure for full briefing in the coming months and argument next fall.

The Question Presented in Culley v. Marshall, No. 22-585, as framed by the attorney for the petitioner, is:

In determining whether the Due Process Clause requires a state or local government to provide a post seizure probable cause hearing prior to a statutory judicial forfeiture proceeding and, if so, when such a hearing must take place, should district courts apply the “speedy trial” test employed in United States v. $8,850, 461 U.S. 555 (1983) and Barker v. Wingo, 407 U.S. 514 (1972), as held by the Eleventh Circuit or the three-part due process analysis set forth in Mathews v. Eldridge, 424 U.S. 319 (1976) as held by at least the Second, Fifth, Seventh, and Ninth Circuits.

Counterman v. Colorado, No. 22-138, on anti-stalking laws and the First Amendment, will be argued Wednesday. CJLF’s amicus brief is here.

Chicago Votes for Crime

by · Apr 5, 2023 8:44 am

Bad news from the Windy City. Joe Barrett reports for the WSJ:

Brandon Johnson, a Cook County Board commissioner with strong backing from the Chicago Teachers Union, pulled off an upset victory over former schools chief Paul Vallas to become mayor of the country’s third-largest city after a contentious race focused on public safety.

The Associated Press called the race with 99% of precincts reporting. Mr. Johnson was ahead 51.4% to 48.6%, a margin of nearly 16,000 votes. Continue reading . . .

Getting Off Scot Free for a Technical Error?

by · Mar 16, 2023 10:49 am

Paul Larkin and Cully Stimson have this article in the Federalist Society Review previewing the case of Smith v. United States, No. 21-1576, set for argument in the Supreme Court Tuesday, March 28.

Smith was tried in the wrong district, so the Eleventh Circuit reversed his conviction and granted him a new trial in the correct district. He claims that’s not enough; he should get off completely. Larkin and Stimson explain why that is not the law. Continue reading . . .

Bribery at Cal. Bar

by · Mar 10, 2023 12:07 pm

How did the now-disgraced Thomas Girardi avoid the scrutiny of the California State Bar’s discipline folks for so long despite “over 200 misconduct complaints against Girardi dating back to at least 1984.” He handled those folks the old-fashioned way. He bribed them.

From a letter from the Bar Chair to all California attorneys:

The May report found that Girardi intentionally cultivated relationships at the State Bar and it spotlights nine individuals at all levels who accepted his largesse and failed to report it, creating conflicts of interest. The report details several instances in which the involvement in Girardi cases of conflicted individuals tainted the discretionary decisions they made on behalf of the State Bar, and as a result, the Girardi cases they worked on were improperly closed.

Continue reading . . .

‘Defund the Police’ Is Over. Now What?

by · Mar 8, 2023 2:58 pm

William Galston, the WSJ’s resident contrarian columnist*, has this column with the above title. Galston notes the political developments in Chicago, New York, and Washington and has this advice for his fellow liberals:

These events prove that dealing with the crime surge is back on the national agenda. Democrats must find a way to demonstrate their commitment to public safety while pursuing reasonable reforms of the criminal-justice system.

I have no quarrel with that statement, but the trick is defining “reasonable.” Continue reading . . .

More on the D.C. Crime Bill

by · Mar 6, 2023 3:23 pm

The Federalist Society Criminal Law Practice Group has this teleforum Wednesday at 11:30 am ET / 8:30 am PT on The D.C. Crime Bill: What Happens Next? (See Michael Rushford’s post, earlier today.) The event features “an opening address from U.S. Senator Bill Hagerty [Tenn.], followed by a discussion of the bill and what may come next” led by Zack Smith of the Heritage Foundation. Continue reading . . .

SCOTUS Monday and Standing

by · Mar 6, 2023 10:13 am

This morning was an order list release day at the U.S. Supreme Court. No decisions were issued and no new criminal cases were taken. The court took up a case on admiralty law and choice-of-forum clauses in contracts.

The court turned down a case on standing in an Establishment Clause case. We are interested in standing here at CJLF because we sometimes represent victims of crime seeking to have the perpetrators punished according to the judgment, and such efforts are frequently challenged by saying the victims have no standing. Continue reading . . .

Chicago Dumps Soft-on-Crime Mayor

by · Feb 28, 2023 7:34 pm

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has conceded defeat, the Chicago Tribune reported at 9:00 CST Tuesday. At about that time, the New York Times listed the results as 36.4% for Paul Vallas and 20.2% for Brandon Johnson, with Mayor Lightfoot third.

Plurality winner Mr. Vallas has run on a tough-on-crime platform, the WSJ reports. He has the backing of the Chicago police union. But the windy city isn’t out of the woods yet. Continue reading . . .