Category: Policy

California’s overall crime rates are down, but numbers don’t reveal the whole story

by · Sep 7, 2022 2:56 pm

In a previous post, we announced that California Attorney General Rob Bonta has officially released state crime data for 2021. He eagerly noted that violent and property crime rates are well below the historic highs seen in the mid-1990s, but whistled past the fact that violent crime rates have been slowly climbing since the early 2000s. The contradictory shifts in violent crime versus property crime are somewhat perplexing. While overall crime rates might be down, violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and homicides, have been increasing.

Looking at the numbers all together, it is important to keep in mind: all crimes are not created equal in the harm they cause. For example, homicides are a relatively rare event, yet they are much more harmful than high-frequency crimes like larceny. For example, an increase of 500 thefts would be a small change in the overall number of thefts and would have little overall impact on public safety, whereas an increase of 500 homicides would be a large change in the overall number of homicides and have a very detrimental impact on public safety. By looking at crime statistics though, these nuances can be overshadowed.

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Brutal CA Murderer Got Early Prison Release

by · Aug 10, 2022 2:58 pm

The District Attorneys of Placer and Amador Counties told reporters Monday that a Sacramento man arrested for the July murder and dismemberment of an elderly North Highlands woman, gained early release from state prison after serving less than half of his sentence for previous crimes.  Rosalio Ahumada of the Sacramento Bee reports that habitual felon Darnell Erby is facing charges of aggravated murder and burglary for killing 77-year-old Pamela Garrett May, whose dismembered body was found in her home on July 19.  Over the past 20 years Erby had been convicted of 8 different crimes,  arrested 20 times, and had been unable to go more than two years without committing a serious felony.  Under California’s progressive sentencing reforms Erby actually became eligible for parole in 2018, a year after he was sentenced to 12 years for felony convictions in Placer and Amador County.  He was denied parole twice for criminal activity while in prison, but was granted parole in April of 2021.  Governor Jerry Brown’s Public Safety Realignment (AB 209) passed in 2011, and his George Soros-bankrolled Proposition 57, The Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act, passed in 2016, made this murderer’s release possible.

New York’s bail “reform” and the negative impacts on public safety: Study

by · Aug 9, 2022 3:48 pm

In recent years, many jurisdictions in the U.S. have taken steps to reform their cash bail systems due to concerns about fair treatment of defendants and potential disparities in release decisions. Though, there is no consensus about what should replace cash bail, and there are numerous concerns about the potential public safety risks associated with bail reform. Proponents of bail reform advocate for reducing or eliminating the use of monetary bail to reduce jail populations and reduce income disparities. However, opponents of bail reform argue that reforms have resulted in more defendants committing crimes while on pretrial release. To date, the research has been mixed regarding the impacts of different bail reform efforts, but newer research seems to be suggesting the obvious — that bail “reforms” are linked to increases in crime.

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Misleading numbers: Why are suicides and homicides lumped together under the “gun violence” umbrella?

by · Jul 21, 2022 3:21 pm

A recent article in TIME Magazine purports that “California’s answer to gun violence could be a model for the entire country.” In sum, the article states that California’s firearm violence has decreased over the last 20 years or so, relative to the rest of the country. They attribute this to the various gun legislation passed in California over the years that disrupted the manufacturing of cheap guns within the state, closed private sales loopholes, and restricted gun ownership for people convicted of a violent misdemeanor. But when looking at the actual data, these claims appear misleading.

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Sentence length and recidivism: An updated review of the research

by · Jun 29, 2022 11:00 am

Back in May 2021, we released a comprehensive research review examining the literature on the relationship between length of incarceration and recidivism. To date, this paper is the most comprehensive literature review on the topic. Over the last several months though, we have made some important updates and revisions. The updated version is now available via the Social Science Research Network.

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Soros-Funded Victims’ Groups

by · Apr 20, 2022 9:33 am

As National Crime Victims’ Rights Week kicks off on April 24, three California groups, which support shorter sentences and the early release of criminals, will be holding rallies and events portraying themselves as the voice of victims.

The three progressive groups funded by liberal billionaire George Soros—Crime Survivors for Safety and Justice, Californians for Safety and Justice, and Prosecutors Alliance of California—support defunding police departments, declining to prosecute most criminals, and seeking the shortest possible sentences for those who are prosecuted.

As reported on Fox 40 News, earlier this week, representatives of these groups met with legislators in Sacramento to encourage more state-funded services for crime victims, while ignoring the laws and policies that have flooded California communities with criminals.

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Compassionate release and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: New USSC report

by · Mar 24, 2022 11:01 am

A recent publication by the United States Sentencing Commission (USSC) describes trends in federal compassionate release decisions during fiscal year 2020. It includes detailed information about offenders who received compassionate release, the nature of relief received, and reasons behind court decisions to grant or deny compassionate release motions. The report focuses on federal compassionate release decisions that occurred during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic and is not reflective of 2021 or 2022 trends. This report builds from previous USSC reports, including the First Step Act Year One Report and the Compassionate Release Data Report.

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The Crime Epidemic in Larry Krasner’s Philadelphia

by · Mar 23, 2022 1:00 pm

Crime is out of control in Philadelphia.  There were 562 homicides last year, twice as many than eight years ago, and homicides have increased by 19% so far this year.  The city’s Police Commissioner reports that last year’s 750 carjackings were triple the number in 2019.   For perspective, New York City, which has more than five times the population of Philadelphia, had 485 homicides and 510 carjackings last year.   A data snapshot from last year indicates that police arrested only 31% of the Philadelphia’s murderers, 14% of criminals who shot people,  and 11% of those committing property crimes.  “Far too many in our city think that it’s open season to commit crime here in Philadelphia,” said the Police Commissioner.  They think it’s open season because it is open season.

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The unintended effects of ban-the-box laws on crime

by · Feb 16, 2022 12:21 pm

Nationwide, 37 states and over 150 localities have adopted “ban the box” (BTB) laws, which prevent employers from asking prospective employees about their criminal histories at initial job screenings. Advocates argue that these laws will reduce the stigma associated with past convictions and arrests, increasing employment opportunities for ex-offenders and subsequently reducing incentives for criminal activity. However, some recent studies suggest that this might not be the case, with some suggesting that BTB laws increased job discrimination against some minorities while others have found increases in crime. 

One recent study published in the Journal of Law and Economics comprehensively examined the effect of state and local BTB laws on criminal incidents involving racial and ethnic minorities. According to the study, BTB laws were associated with a 16% increase in property crimes involving working-age Hispanic men. A common theory is that BTB laws increase job discrimination against some minorities, and diminished employment opportunities increase crime. This especially makes sense in the context of property crime, which tends to be economically motivated. Property crimes did not increase among Blacks, however, suggesting that unintended consequences of BTB laws disproportionately affected only certain minorities. 

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