Category: Social Factors

A Baltimore Miracle?

Is the infamously violent Baltimore City* on track for a miracle? Joshua Crawford, director of criminal justice initiatives at the Georgia Center for Opportunity, has this op-ed in the Baltimore Sun,** titled “Are we witnessing a Baltimore Miracle in fight against crime?” He notes Baltimore’s sky-high crime rates, followed by dramatic drops beginning in 2023:

Murder declined nearly 22% in 2023, and then another almost 23% in 2024 — erasing all of the post-2014 increases. Through May 1, 2025, homicides were down another 31%, putting Baltimore on pace for its fourth sub-200 murder year since 1970, and the city’s lowest total since the mid-1960s.

This success follows adoption of a three-pronged effort:

First, in January 2022, Mayor Brandon Scott’s office launched its Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS). GVRS is a focused deterrence policing strategy that focuses on violent groups driving violence. It does so by credibly delivering three messages. Respected members of the community convey that violence is unacceptable and must stop, optional services are offered for those who wish to desist from shootings and other gun violence, and finally, predictable, swift, and certain consequences are promised to those whose groups continue to engage in gun violence.

Continue reading . . .

Culture, Crime, and Statistics

Barry Latzer, Emeritus Professor of Criminology at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, has this letter on culture and crime statistics in the Wall Street Journal.

If economic gains are associated with rising crime and economic downturns with declining crime, the prevailing theories of crime causation need rethinking. Indeed it seems the relationship between crime and economic conditions is unpredictable, and cultural values play a central role in the extent of violent behavior by various social groups.

Professor Latzer is too modest. The prevailing theories have already been rethought. By him. Continue reading . . .

Kids, Gangs, and Prevention

We would all like to help dissuade kids from joining gangs, but how exactly do we do that? Joshua Crawford has this article in City Journal.

Governments have launched a wide array of prevention and intervention efforts to steer kids away from gang life. These programs try to dissuade youth from joining gangs or encourage them to leave. But the initiatives have had mixed results, and the ones that do work well often have limited access to at-risk kids.

To address the root problem, policymakers must understand why kids join gangs. Specifically, they need to recognize that the biggest driver of gang membership is violent crime. Consequently, the best way to stop teenagers from joining gangs is to provide them with safer neighborhoods. Continue reading . . .

Pound Cake at 20 Years

Twenty years ago today, at an NAACP event commemorating the golden anniversary of Brown v. Board of Education, Bill Cosby gave a speech that has come to be known as the Pound Cake Speech. Cosby was a towering figure at the time, a major star in the entertainment industry. He triggered an earthquake by delivering a message that a great many people did not want to hear.

Looking at the incarcerated, these are not political criminals. These are people going around stealing Coca Cola. People getting shot in the back of the head over a piece of pound cake! Then we all run out and are outraged: “The cops shouldn’t have shot him.” What the hell was he doing with the pound cake in his hand? I wanted a piece of pound cake just as bad as anybody else. And I looked at it and I had no money. And something called parenting said if you get caught with it you’re going to embarrass your mother.” Not, “You’re going to get your butt kicked.” No. “You’re going to embarrass your mother.” “You’re going to embarrass your family.”

Cosby turned out to be a horribly inappropriate messenger, but his message was spot on then and remains true today. His downfall was fully justified, but a tragic side-effect was that no one with the stature that he had then has picked up the baton. Continue reading . . .

Chicago Votes for Crime

Bad news from the Windy City. Joe Barrett reports for the WSJ:

Brandon Johnson, a Cook County Board commissioner with strong backing from the Chicago Teachers Union, pulled off an upset victory over former schools chief Paul Vallas to become mayor of the country’s third-largest city after a contentious race focused on public safety.

The Associated Press called the race with 99% of precincts reporting. Mr. Johnson was ahead 51.4% to 48.6%, a margin of nearly 16,000 votes. Continue reading . . .

Culture, Root Causes, and Discussion Taboos

In a basketball tournament for teenage girls last November, one player punched an opponent, knocking her to the floor and giving her a concussion. What did the offending girl’s mother think of this blatant assault and battery? She was the one who instructed her daughter to do it. Latria Shonty Hunt was charged with contributing to the delinquency of a minor but let off with an apology and restitution. See this story by Vikki Vargas and Heather Navarro for NBC LA.

People have long debated the “root causes” of crime, and the discussion usually focuses on income. Poverty is the root cause of crime. Government programs are the solution to poverty. So let’s just spend more on government anti-poverty programs and crime will go down. That was how the Great Society was sold to America in the 1960s, and it was a cataclysmic failure. But that does not stop people from urging us to repeat the history.

Victor Hugo notwithstanding, we have enough of a social safety net in place that no one is going to jail for stealing loaves of bread to feed starving children. We need to look elsewhere for root causes. A powerful but under-discussed root cause of crime is culture. Too many young people are subject to influences from those around them that cause them to choose the path of crime rather than the path of law-abidingness. In the case of Ms. Hunt’s daughter, the very person who should have been teaching her to obey the law, respect the rights of others, and generally be a good person was teaching her just the opposite. Even kids with good parents are subject to bad influences from peers and popular culture.

So why don’t we hear more about culture as a root cause of crime? Continue reading . . .

A Martin Luther King Day Reminder on Genuine Humanity

First a question:  If Martin Luther King were alive today, would he be more likely to agree with the anthem that black lives matter, or with the view that all lives matter?

I don’t think it’s a close question.  The whole point of the civil rights movement was equality.  And in the days of Dr. King, no one thought “equality” meant “equality of outcomes”  —  which is what the gossamer word “equity” is trying to put over on us today (albeit typically in the disguise of intentionally opaque academic gibberish).  “Equality” meant equal standing before the law, and an equal chance at success and living a peaceful life.

Is that what black people are getting now, in the era of progressive prosecutors and criminal justice reform?

Continue reading . . .

Breaking News: The Media is Pushing Racism

As if we already did not know this, but sometimes the national media exposes itself so blatantly it defies logic.  Jason Riley has this piece in the Wall Street Journal discussing the amazing double standard in the way the national media covered the death of George Floyd, the Rittenhouse case and the Waukesha massacre.  “The protests that followed Floyd’s death rested on two assumptions. The first is that Floyd, a career criminal and drug addict, was somehow representative of black America, which is not only false but deeply insulting. The second is that police acted out of racial animus, which has never been proven. This is what happens when racial identity becomes the centerpiece of politics and public life in a multiracial society.”  But that was the prevailing narrative and the riots and murders swept the country in response to Floyd’s death were generally reported as justified.  “The Biden administration has picked up where the Obama administration left off.”  Although the criminals killed by Rittenhouse were white, he was immediately characterized as a racist white supremacist in “a clumsy attempt by President Biden and his allies to further a narrative about bias in the criminal justice system.”

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Rebutting the “Root Cause” Myth

Two recent articles deal with one of the most persistent myths in justice policy: the “root cause” obsession. Large numbers of people are haunted by the vision of Victor Hugo’s fictional character Jean Valjean, who went to prison for stealing bread to feed his sister’s starving children. If only we provided a better social safety net, the myth goes, crime would disappear. Whatever validity it may have had in mid-nineteenth century France, stealing for the necessities of life has virtually nothing to do with crime in the post-World War II United States.

This “poverty is the root cause of crime” vision was, to a large extent, how LBJ sold America on the Great Society, and it was a cataclysmic  failure. Yet the myth weirdly persists and in the last few years has even grown stronger. Jason Riley has this column in the WSJ today titled The Destructive Legacy of the Great Society: Government subsidies for antisocial behavior stalled decades worth of black progress. Charles Fain Lehman has this article in the Summer edition of City Journal titled, Contra “Root Causes”: What the work of James Q. Wilson can teach us about the fight over criminal justice today. Continue reading . . .

Bluegrass Bloodshed and Possible Solutions

Joshua Crawford of the Pegasus Institute has this op-ed on the horrific rates of shootings and homicides in Louisville, Kentucky and the city council’s reaction.

Louisville Metro Council recently took significant measures that could help save lives and stop the out-of-control bloodshed. They passed a budget with notable measures including allocating $620,000 to expand the ShotSpotter gunshot detection system, $500,000 to help with the implementation of Group Violence Intervention (GVI), and millions that can be used to increase officer pay in the hopes of improving recruitment and retention. They also admirably resisted calls from radicals to defund LMPD.

Continue reading . . .