Category: Studies and Statistics

Crude Statistics and Discrimination Claims

by · Feb 16, 2024 9:07 am

Here is yet another case of a misleading claim via crude statistics. (See also this post.) This one, unfortunately was actually bought by a federal district judge, with grave implications.

Hans Bader has this post at Liberty Unyielding on a recent decision out of Richmond, Virginia.

A judge recently found that the City of Richmond racially profiles black motorists, dismissing the indictment of a black convicted felon accused of illegally possessing a gun. The judge did not find that defendant Keith Moore had been treated differently than a similarly situated-white motorist. Instead, he ruled that Richmond police stops are racially discriminatory, based on statistics showing blacks are stopped and arrested at much higher rates than whites …. Continue reading . . .

Bail reform increased recidivism rates for violent offenders: Study

by · Feb 13, 2024 1:02 pm

Bail reform has been a hot topic in the criminal justice arena, particularly in New York, where significant legislative changes were enacted in 2019. These reforms aimed to address disparities in pretrial detention practices and promote fairness within the system. Now, a new study offers fresh insights into the impact of these reforms, specifically focusing on suburban and upstate regions. As policymakers and stakeholders continue to navigate the complexities of bail reform, this study provides valuable findings on its effects on recidivism rates and pretrial detention practices. In this blog post, we delve into the key findings of this study and discuss their implications for ongoing reform efforts.

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Red/Blue States, Crime Rates, and Statistical Prestidigitation

by · Feb 8, 2024 10:15 am

In the past two years, there have been dueling studies flying back and forth about whether jurisdictions in the political control of one party or the other have higher crime rates. They have been used by advocates to make “studies show” arguments in favor of or against particular policies. But this is all smoke and mirrors, as this Issue Brief from the Manhattan Institute shows. It is titled The “Red” vs. “Blue” Crime Debate and the Limits of Empirical Social Science, by George J. Borjas and Robert VerBruggen.

This is really a case study in how researcher-advocates can produce any bottom line they want in many cases through design decisions that fly beneath the radar of public awareness. Do you compare states or counties? What variables do you control for? The authors note, “Casual consumers of empirical social science research often fail to appreciate all the ways in which researchers can manipulate the data to say whatever they want.” An alternate expression is the pithy old saying, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” Continue reading . . .

No compelling evidence of racial bias in sentencing, per new meta-analysis

by · Jan 4, 2024 3:46 pm

The question of racial bias in the criminal justice system is a highly debated issue. In recent years, it has become a common belief that the criminal justice system is racially biased, wherein black and Latino defendants receive harsher sentences than whites or Asian defendants. But the empirical research does not fully support these perceptions, according to a recently published meta-analysis (note: a subscription is required for access).

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More on Shoplifting Stats

by · Dec 10, 2023 8:28 pm

A couple of updates on prior reports of shoplifting statistics:

The National Retail Federation has revised its earlier report on retail losses due to crime, which we reported here. The statistic of $95 billion, noted in our post, stands. However, the NRF withdrew its claim that half of that total was from organized retail crime. The fraction from organized, rather than individual, theft is unknown at present. See this article by Anne D’Innocenzio for AP, in the WaPo. From the article: Continue reading . . .

Shoplifting Stats

by · Dec 1, 2023 12:02 am

The Council on Criminal Justice has this report on shoplifting statistics. As we have noted on this blog many times and the report acknowledges, these stats have to be taken with caution because they only measure crimes reported to the police. When no-consequences policies lead people to believe (often correctly) that the police will not do anything anyway, reporting likely drops, thereby concealing an increase that may result from the same policies. Further, the report notes, we do not have the backup of the National Crime Victimization Survey that we have for crimes against individuals. The NCVS does not survey businesses.

With that big caveat, the report does have some interesting data. Among the “key takeaways”:

• Shoplifting incidents reported to police have rebounded since falling dramatically in 24 large American cities during 2020. But whether the overall tally is up or down compared with pre-pandemic levels depends on the inclusion of New York City. With New York’s numbers included, reported incidents were 16% higher (8,453 more incidents) in the study cities during the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2019; without New York, the number was 7% lower (-2,552 incidents).

The big drop during the pandemic was, obviously, because of the big drop in people going to stores and stores being open. What about the 2023 v. 2019 numbers? I’m skeptical that even without New York overall shoplifting is actually down. A drop is reporting is almost certainly a big factor there. Continue reading . . .

Study Finds No Effect of Gun Buybacks

by · Nov 20, 2023 7:13 pm

The Philadelphia Inquirer has this op-ed by Temple University Professor Jerry Ratcliffe and grad student Marc Huffer. Their recently published study adds to the evidence that gun buyback programs are just for show and have no measurable effect on gun crimes. What’s the problem? The programs buy back the wrong guns. The guns the programs buy are brought in by law-abiding folks, while the criminals keep theirs. “Tellingly, Philadelphia’s Office of Forensic Science has never found a National Integrated Ballistic Information Network link to a crime with any gun surrendered in the city’s gun buyback program. Clearly, buyback firearms are not the ones causing such misery in the city.”

That’s consistent with what common sense told us all along, but “never” is a stronger result than I expected. Continue reading . . .

Alarming Rise in Carjacking by Juveniles in DC

by · Nov 15, 2023 6:10 pm

Liam Bissainthe has this post at Liberty Unyielding, reporting that carjacking in DC is up 600% over 2019. The post cites this report from WTOP on October 3, reporting that as of that date there had been 750 carjackings in 2023, 75% of them involving guns. Nearly two-thirds of the persons arrested for carjacking to that date were juveniles.

Why do so many DC juveniles commit this violent crime?

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Retail Crime Survey

by · Oct 27, 2023 10:08 am

Surveys of crime are worth keeping an eye on, as they help compensate for a major deficiency in official crime statistics. The official stats are generally “crimes known to the police.”  These crimes are undercounted when people don’t bother to report the crimes, and the nonreporting rate tends to increase when policies are adopted that lead people to believe that the police won’t do anything if they do report.

The National Retail Federation has this report on its 2023 Retail Security Survey. Among the results reported are the metropolitan areas identified by retailers as most affected by organized retail crime:

Continue reading . . .