Crime Victim Survey 2023

The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics has released the 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey. After increases in 2022, the rates were nearly the same as the past year, with violent crimes down 1/1000* and property crimes up the same amount.

The rates at which victims reported crimes to the police rose from 41.5% to 44.7% for violent crimes and fell from 31.8% to 29.9% for property crimes. For thefts other than cars, less than a quarter of crimes committed are now reported to the police.

The NCVS is an important part of statistical puzzle, as it bypasses the main limitation of the “crimes known to the police” figures. Not all crimes are known to the police, and the percentages vary widely by type of crime.

There is a curiously large drop in the portion of robberies reported, from 64.0% to 42.4%, and a similarly curious increase in the portion of rapes reported, from 21.4% to 46.0%. Both changes are reported as “significant at the 95% confidence level,” meaning that random sampling error is unlikely to be the cause. But swings so large in a single year warrant skeptical examination.

* Rates are reported in number of crimes per 1000 households.