Crime Rates Up and Down in First Half of 2020

The FBI has released its preliminary crime report for the first half of 2020. In this unprecedented year, we see crime rate changes varying widely by crime. Rates for rape, robbery, burglary, and most thefts are down, probably because of more people staying home. Rates for murder and arson are up sharply, and there are substantial increases in aggravated assault and auto theft as well.

These changes probably have more than one cause. Domestic violence probably goes up with people being “cooped up” and frustrated. Arson has been a common feature of “mostly peaceful” protests, although much of that postdates the June 30 cutoff of this data set. The murder increase is likely a mix of the frustration factor and the increase in general lawlessness.