Grasping at Statistical Straws

Graph of California Recidivism Rates

Cal. 3-Year Recidivism Rates for Cohorts Released in 2-Year Periods 2003-2018

This graph shows data on recidivism from the California Dept. of Corrections and Rehabilitation’s most recent report. Each cohort released in a 2-year period is tracked for three years for arrests, convictions, and returns to prison. The blue line is convictions, which CDCR regards as its primary measure. This rate was 44.6% for the 2015-16 cohort. It rose to 47.6% for the 2016-17 cohort. Then for 2017-18 it fell back to where it was for 2015-16. CDCR’s Secretary is crowing that this represents confirmation that post-Prop. 57 “credit-earning opportunities … is [sic] having a positive impact to improve public safety.”

Seriously? Continue reading . . .

Chicago Criminals Celebrate New Progressive Mayor

On April 4, Chicago voters doubled down on woke criminal justice reform by electing Brandon Johnson as Mayor.  Out-of-control crime has been the city’s leading policy issue for several years, with most believing that former Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s defeat was due to her failure to effectively address it.  Johnson’s recently-announced policies are even more anti-law enforcement than hers.  He is erasing the street gang database that has helped police identify violent offenders, calling it racist.  The Sun Times reports that instead of filling the hundreds of vacancies in the Chicago PD, Johnson is closing down police stations and wants to hire non-police “trained professionals” to respond to 911 calls.  He had vowed to address the root causes of crime (poverty, housing, education) rather than aggressively going after the criminals.  Last weekend, the criminals responded by shooting 35 people with 8 fatalities.  Two of the victims were shot when hundreds of teens took over the Millennium Park area, smashing windows and setting cars on fire.  The previous weekend 20 people were shot with three fatalities.  It looks like the open season in Chicago will continue.

Gaslighting the Public on Recividism

A story posted in the online edition of the Sacramento Bee reports that after California’s 2016 adoption of Proposition 57, “The Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act,” recidivism went down according to a report from state’s Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR). The initiative allowed criminals convicted of so called non-violent crimes such as drug dealing, car theft, grand larceny and burglary to be released from prison early based upon their behavior while incarcerated.  The criminal’s prior convictions, even for murder or rape, were not required to be considered in the CDCR process to determine who was eligible and how much time off they would receive.  The Bee article notes that the measure was opposed by law enforcement organizations like the San Francisco Police Officers Association, Association of Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs and the California District Attorneys Association, who warned that it would allow the release of dangerous violent offenders resulting in increased crime.  But in the three years after Proposition 57 passed, the CDCR reported that the conviction and return-to-prison rates for released inmates declined.

Continue reading . . .

Forfeiture Procedure

The U.S. Supreme Court today took up a case on forfeiture procedure for full briefing in the coming months and argument next fall.

The Question Presented in Culley v. Marshall, No. 22-585, as framed by the attorney for the petitioner, is:

In determining whether the Due Process Clause requires a state or local government to provide a post seizure probable cause hearing prior to a statutory judicial forfeiture proceeding and, if so, when such a hearing must take place, should district courts apply the “speedy trial” test employed in United States v. $8,850, 461 U.S. 555 (1983) and Barker v. Wingo, 407 U.S. 514 (1972), as held by the Eleventh Circuit or the three-part due process analysis set forth in Mathews v. Eldridge, 424 U.S. 319 (1976) as held by at least the Second, Fifth, Seventh, and Ninth Circuits.

Counterman v. Colorado, No. 22-138, on anti-stalking laws and the First Amendment, will be argued Wednesday. CJLF’s amicus brief is here.

Expelled Tennessee Lawmaker Indicted For Assault in 2020

Justin Jones, the Tennessee legislator expelled last week for active participation in a protest (insurrection?) that shut down proceedings in the statehouse, was indicted for assaulting a motorist during a George Floyd protest in the summer of 2020.  Caroline Downey of National Review reports that Jones was caught on video blocking a street outside the state capitol and attacking the driver of a pickup with a traffic cone as he attempted to leave.  The video was shown to a Grand Jury, which indicted Jones for assault and reckless endangerment.  Jones claimed that his actions were “peaceful” and that the police and prosecutors were “pushing a false narrative portraying me as violent.”  The video clearly shows Jones’s carrying out the assault, but my favorite is the protester in the yellow shirt who does an NBA flop when the silver car he’s blocking touches him.  He would be ejected from a game for such a blatant fake.  It is terrifying to be caught in one of these road blocks and swarmed by protesters.

CA Bill Releases Death Sentenced Murderers After 20 Years

This article was published in the  April 11, issue of the California Globe.

The California Senate Public Safety Committee will hear a legislative proposal Thursday which would give the state’s worst murderers, who have been sentenced to death or life without the possibility of parole (LWOP), the opportunity to have their sentences invalidated and make them eligible for parole.  SB94, introduced by Senator Dave Cortese (D-Santa Clara), specifies that criminals  convicted of murder with special circumstances before June 5, 1990 and sentenced to death or LWOP would be provided with a public defender to petition for recall and resentencing.  The bill would authorize the court to modify the petitioner’s sentence to impose a lesser sentence and apply any changes in law that reduce sentences or provide for judicial discretion, or to vacate the petitioner’s conviction and impose judgment on a lesser included offense.  Among the murderers who could apply for a sentence reduction and possible release is Tequon Cox, who in 1984, went to the wrong address for a gang-revenge killing and murdered a mother, her daughter and two of her grandchildren.  Cox was sentenced to death for these crimes.  In 2004, while on death row, Cox stabbed another condemned murderer and, along with three other murderers, cut a hole in the San Quentin fence and nearly  escaped.   UPDATE:  SB94 passed out of the committee by a vote of 4-1.  It now goes to the Appropriations Committee.

Continue reading . . .

Florida Set to Execute Two Murderers

Barring a last-minute stay, Florida will execute Louis Gaskin, dubbed the “Ninja Killer” for the murders and burglary of a Palm Coast couple.  Naomi Feinstein of the Miami New Times reports that Gaskin’s execution will be carried out on April 12.  Another Florida murderer, Darryl Barwick, is scheduled to be executed on May 4.  A unanimous Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals decision upholding Gaskin’s conviction and death sentence describes the random killings five days before Christmas in 1989.  That evening Gaskin drove through a of Palm Coast neighborhood and spotted a house with a light on.  He parked and walked around the house several times.  Looking in the windows he saw Robert and Georgette Strumfels sitting in their den.   He shot Robert twice through the window.  When Georgette attempted to leave the room, he shot her, then shot her again as she crawled down a hall.  Gaskin then climbed through a window and executed both victims with shots to the head.  He left after stealing several items from the home.  UPDATE:  Gaskin was pronounced dead at 6:15 pm, Wednesday.

Continue reading . . .

Chicago Votes for Crime

Bad news from the Windy City. Joe Barrett reports for the WSJ:

Brandon Johnson, a Cook County Board commissioner with strong backing from the Chicago Teachers Union, pulled off an upset victory over former schools chief Paul Vallas to become mayor of the country’s third-largest city after a contentious race focused on public safety.

The Associated Press called the race with 99% of precincts reporting. Mr. Johnson was ahead 51.4% to 48.6%, a margin of nearly 16,000 votes. Continue reading . . .

LA Supervisors Drop Bid to Empty Jails

A proposal by Los Angeles Supervisors Lindsey Horvath and Hilda Solis to release thousands of convicted criminals from county jails has been tabled after pushback from the public and law enforcement according to reporter Bradford Betz of Fox News.  The board had scheduled a hearing on the proposal for Tuesday, but that hearing was cancelled.  The proposal would have required the Sheriff to release all inmates with bail amounts of $50,000 or less, and re-establish the zero bail policy implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic.  Progressive activists have been pressuring the board to close the county’s central jail for years, citing “horrid and inhumane” conditions.  This comes as police report that a drug dealer has been arrested for gunning down four people in a Trader Joe’s parking lot last Saturday afternoon, leaving one dead.  Did the shooter get released without bail after his last arrest?   This is a good bet under District Attorney George Gascon’s criminal-coddling policies.