Tagged: policing

Police Stops and Naïve Denominators

by · Aug 11, 2025 12:19 pm

In their 2025 article published in Crime Science, Jerry Ratcliffe and Shelley Hyland critically examine how reported racial disparities in police stop data can be misleading. They argue that much of the misrepresentation stems from the widespread use of an inappropriate baseline, or “denominator,” when calculating stop rates.

Typically, analysts compare the distribution of police stops across different racial groups to the distribution in the total city population. Unfortunately, this method does not account for differences regarding who is actually more or less likely to encounter police stops. In doing so, this approach ignores important factors such as the uneven geographic distribution of crime and variations in police deployment. According to the authors, by relying on this “naïve denominator,” studies risk overstating racial disparities. Ratcliffe and Hyland’s work challenges researchers, policymakers, and the public to reconsider how police stop data should be interpreted to paint a more accurate and nuanced picture of racial bias in law enforcement.

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Understanding the 2020–2021 homicide spike in the U.S.: Causes, variations, and recovery patterns

by · Jun 2, 2025 10:34 am

The United States experienced a sharp rise in homicide rates during 2020–2021, prompting widespread research into one of the most significant crime surges on record. A recently published study by the Manhattan Institute analyzed homicide patterns in 78 large cities, identifying shifts in city-level trends and exploring links to policing disruptions, social unrest, and pandemic-related economic changes. While the study was not designed to evaluate criminal justice reform initiatives, its findings have implications for understanding the social context in which many of these programs were implemented.

Researchers found that the spike in homicides was tended to be more severe in cities and communities already struggling with high baseline violence, with contributing factors including reduced police staffing, disrupted public services, and concentrated group-related gun violence. Surprisingly, unemployment shifts during the pandemic were not consistent predictors of rising homicides, challenging common assumptions.

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Decoding Prop 47: What recent audit findings reveal about the impact in San Bernardino and Riverside counties

by · Aug 23, 2024 2:29 pm

If you’ve been following California’s criminal justice reforms, you’re likely familiar with Proposition 47. Passed in 2014, Prop. 47 reclassified certain nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, with the main goal of alleviating pressures on the state’s prison system by decreasing incarceration rates for nonviolent crimes. Reclassified offenses include drug possession, forgery, as well as instances of burglary, theft, and shoplifting wherein the stolen property amounts to less than $950.

Proponents believe that reducing incarceration rates for nonviolent offenses can lead to better rehabilitation outcomes and more efficient use of public resources, while critics argue that it has caused an increase in theft and drug-related crimes as well as an increase in reoffending. A recent audit by the Joint Legislative Audit Committee delves into how this measure has played out in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. In this post, I’ll break down the key takeaways from this extensive audit.

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The power of communities in crime prevention: Insights from Baltimore

by · Apr 12, 2024 11:08 am

Crime tends to be concentrated in specific areas within cities, with about 50% of crime occurring on just 5% of streets. One police strategy that can help combat this is known as “hot-spot policing,” which has been shown to reduce violent crime in multiple studies.  Another factor that can help reduce crime in an area is when citizens exercise “informal social control.” Informal social control refers to the ability of community members to regulate behavior and maintain order through cohesive relationships, mutual trust, and willingness to intervene.  It involves residents taking actions to prevent and address crime and disorder in their neighborhoods.

One common assumption is that the chatoic and disordered nature of high-crime hot spots renders residents incapable of playing a significant role in crime prevention. However, a new study conducted in Baltimore seems to reveal otherwise.

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Unveiling the impact of depolicing on crime: Insights from Denver’s neighborhoods

by · Mar 1, 2024 3:45 pm

A new research study published in Criminology examined the impact of sudden and sustained reductions in proactive policing (i.e., “de-policing”) on violent crime across neighborhoods in Denver, Colorado, leveraging the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest after the murder of George Floyd as exogenous shocks. The study utilized multilevel models to analyze the impact of large-scale reductions in police stops and drug-related arrests on violent and property crime in the city.

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Analyzing homicide trends: Republican vs. Democratic leadership

by · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .

Vallejo, CA officially declares state of emergency over police shortage

by · Aug 1, 2023 12:10 pm

Last week, the city of Vallejo, California officially declared a state of emergency due to its lack of police officers, Daniel Egitto of the Vallejo Times-Herald reports. Over the last several months, the Vallejo Police Department (VPD)’s officer shortage has been worsening, with five officers leaving since March, and another three scheduled to leave within the next month.

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PA state police data shows no racial profiling in traffic stops: Study

by · May 25, 2023 12:35 pm

The question of racial bias in police traffic stops is a highly debated issue. Some analyses have shown that certain racial or ethnic groups are disproportionately represented in traffic stops, leading many people to allege racial profiling and discrimination. However, it is not accurate or fair to claim that all police traffic stops are inherently racist. Other factors can contribute to racial disparities in police stops, including differences in driving behavior, geographic location, and crime rates in specific areas. As more research is conducted on this topic, it becomes more apparent how much context and other factors can play a role in traffic stop decisions. For example,  research that adequately accounts for the impact of contextual and situational factors has found that racial disparities may not be as pronounced as previously thought, and that they are often explained by other factors unrelated to race.

This was the case in a recent study examining traffic stops in Pennsylvania, which found no evidence of racial profiling. According to the full-length report, the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) stopped more than 440,000 drivers in 2022, 78.5% of whom white. In comparison, 14.4% were Black, and 8.2% were Hispanic. To conduct the study, the PSP partnered with Dr. Robin Engel and the National Police Foundation to ensure that the evaluation was independent and external to the department. Overall, these data should inspire public confidence in the police. It also suggests that PSP’s approach could serve as a promising model for other agencies.

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