Tagged: proactive policing

Police Stops and Naïve Denominators

In their 2025 article published in Crime Science, Jerry Ratcliffe and Shelley Hyland critically examine how reported racial disparities in police stop data can be misleading. They argue that much of the misrepresentation stems from the widespread use of an inappropriate baseline, or “denominator,” when calculating stop rates.

Typically, analysts compare the distribution of police stops across different racial groups to the distribution in the total city population. Unfortunately, this method does not account for differences regarding who is actually more or less likely to encounter police stops. In doing so, this approach ignores important factors such as the uneven geographic distribution of crime and variations in police deployment. According to the authors, by relying on this “naïve denominator,” studies risk overstating racial disparities. Ratcliffe and Hyland’s work challenges researchers, policymakers, and the public to reconsider how police stop data should be interpreted to paint a more accurate and nuanced picture of racial bias in law enforcement.

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Understanding the 2020–2021 homicide spike in the U.S.: Causes, variations, and recovery patterns

The United States experienced a sharp rise in homicide rates during 2020–2021, prompting widespread research into one of the most significant crime surges on record. A recently published study by the Manhattan Institute analyzed homicide patterns in 78 large cities, identifying shifts in city-level trends and exploring links to policing disruptions, social unrest, and pandemic-related economic changes. While the study was not designed to evaluate criminal justice reform initiatives, its findings have implications for understanding the social context in which many of these programs were implemented.

Researchers found that the spike in homicides was tended to be more severe in cities and communities already struggling with high baseline violence, with contributing factors including reduced police staffing, disrupted public services, and concentrated group-related gun violence. Surprisingly, unemployment shifts during the pandemic were not consistent predictors of rising homicides, challenging common assumptions.

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PA state police data shows no racial profiling in traffic stops: Study

The question of racial bias in police traffic stops is a highly debated issue. Some analyses have shown that certain racial or ethnic groups are disproportionately represented in traffic stops, leading many people to allege racial profiling and discrimination. However, it is not accurate or fair to claim that all police traffic stops are inherently racist. Other factors can contribute to racial disparities in police stops, including differences in driving behavior, geographic location, and crime rates in specific areas. As more research is conducted on this topic, it becomes more apparent how much context and other factors can play a role in traffic stop decisions. For example,  research that adequately accounts for the impact of contextual and situational factors has found that racial disparities may not be as pronounced as previously thought, and that they are often explained by other factors unrelated to race.

This was the case in a recent study examining traffic stops in Pennsylvania, which found no evidence of racial profiling. According to the full-length report, the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) stopped more than 440,000 drivers in 2022, 78.5% of whom white. In comparison, 14.4% were Black, and 8.2% were Hispanic. To conduct the study, the PSP partnered with Dr. Robin Engel and the National Police Foundation to ensure that the evaluation was independent and external to the department. Overall, these data should inspire public confidence in the police. It also suggests that PSP’s approach could serve as a promising model for other agencies.

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Unsound statistical analysis misrepresents racial profiling in California police stop data

Findings from the California’s Racial & Identity Profiling Advisory (RIPA) Board’s Annual Report released earlier this month have sparked controversy after the results revealed that nonwhites are dispropotionately represented in police stops. The report also claimed that, of those stopped, nonwhites were searched more frequently, arrested more frequently, and more frequently engaged in physical confrontations with police officers. This led many people to conclude that the police are in fact, racist. However, it’s important to note that the practice of policing is far more complicated than what can be captured in datasets. While these data appear straightforward, studying racial bias is complicated.

There are myriad contextual factors at play that affect officer decisionmaking and police-citizen interactions, such that it is nearly impossible to attribute racial disparities solely to any one cause. Unfortunately, contextual factors are often not easily measured, or they might be ignored on the basis that these details are “less important.” But ignoring these key details leaves us with an incomplete understanding of the dynamics influencing these police encounters. So when it comes to the RIPA Board’s report, the findings seem straightforward, but a closer look shows some holes in the methodology that likely undermine the validity of the findings. To this end, the Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC) conducted a critical analysis of the report that highlighted numerous problems with the RIPA data and the methodology used in the report. In this post, I will summarize the key issues raised by the PORAC.

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Rural America surging worse in homicides

After declining for over two decades, homicides in the United States increased sharply in 2015 and 2016. This slowed a little bit in the years that followed, until another dramatic increase in homicides occurred in 2020. In fact, the 30% increase from 2019-2020 is the largest ever recorded. By 2021, homicides rose another 5%. This uptick was not as striking as the one seen in 2020, though the numbers were still higher than pre-2019. And while cities tend to have higher violent crime rates overall, newer research suggests that cities are now safer than they have been in decades, while small communities are becoming more dangerous. Specifically, the massive increase in homicides in rural areas is astonishing. From 2019-2020, homicides in rural areas rose by an average of 25 percent. Per the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the states with the highest homicide rates in 2020 were Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, and Arkansas.

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New study examines the impacts of the pandemic and George Floyd’s death on crime and policing

After the killing of George Floyd in 2020, protests erupted throughout many cities and calls for defunding the police became the new norm. This also occurred at the same time as the pandemic, which police responded to in myriad ways. A new study by researchers at Arizona State University examined the independent impacts of George Floyd’s death and the pandemic on crime and police work. Overall, the study found that both events had independent impacts on some measures of crime and police activity. The pandemic seemed to have a greater impact on crime while George Floyd’s death seemed to have a greater impact on police proactivity. The impacts on police work were massive and are consistent with the de-policing hypothesis.

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Real police reform requires an increase in officers

As more and more cities call for defunding the police, large police departments continue to face worsening staff shortages. Defunding the police is meant to be a reform effort, but paradoxically, in many ways it may limit police from doing their jobs well. A recent article in Manhattan Institute’s City Journal describes alternative options for police reform other than defunding, citing community policing, foot patrols, or defensive tactics training — but all of these take time, staff, and money. For example, conflict resolution may be an effective method for resolving problems without resorting to arrest, but it takes longer.

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Police leadership and organizational culture on police effectiveness

In a recent article, I discuss some of the antecedents and consequences of “de-policing,” a term used to refer to reductions in proactive policing strategies. Increases in de-policing also coincide with increases in public pressure and aggression (e.g., protests, ‘viral’ police use-of-force videos). Recently, there have been various movements meant to “reform” police departments, such as efforts to de-fund the police and efforts to end qualified immunity. Unfortunately though, these efforts can come off as aggressive and may decrease officer motivation and increase their cynicism of their jobs. This is important, as officer motivation and morale is likely a key mechanism contributing to the de-policing effect. On a broader scale, efforts to de-fund the police would constrain agencies’ abilities to train their officers, acquire new technology, and leverage data/digital evidence to be more proactive in preventing crime.

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