Police Stops and Naïve Denominators
In their 2025 article published in Crime Science, Jerry Ratcliffe and Shelley Hyland critically examine how reported racial disparities in police stop data can be misleading. They argue that much of the misrepresentation stems from the widespread use of an inappropriate baseline, or “denominator,” when calculating stop rates.
Typically, analysts compare the distribution of police stops across different racial groups to the distribution in the total city population. Unfortunately, this method does not account for differences regarding who is actually more or less likely to encounter police stops. In doing so, this approach ignores important factors such as the uneven geographic distribution of crime and variations in police deployment. According to the authors, by relying on this “naïve denominator,” studies risk overstating racial disparities. Ratcliffe and Hyland’s work challenges researchers, policymakers, and the public to reconsider how police stop data should be interpreted to paint a more accurate and nuanced picture of racial bias in law enforcement.