Tagged: de-policing

Understanding the 2020–2021 homicide spike in the U.S.: Causes, variations, and recovery patterns

by · Jun 2, 2025 10:34 am

The United States experienced a sharp rise in homicide rates during 2020–2021, prompting widespread research into one of the most significant crime surges on record. A recently published study by the Manhattan Institute analyzed homicide patterns in 78 large cities, identifying shifts in city-level trends and exploring links to policing disruptions, social unrest, and pandemic-related economic changes. While the study was not designed to evaluate criminal justice reform initiatives, its findings have implications for understanding the social context in which many of these programs were implemented.

Researchers found that the spike in homicides was tended to be more severe in cities and communities already struggling with high baseline violence, with contributing factors including reduced police staffing, disrupted public services, and concentrated group-related gun violence. Surprisingly, unemployment shifts during the pandemic were not consistent predictors of rising homicides, challenging common assumptions.

Continue reading . . .

Unveiling the impact of depolicing on crime: Insights from Denver’s neighborhoods

by · Mar 1, 2024 3:45 pm

A new research study published in Criminology examined the impact of sudden and sustained reductions in proactive policing (i.e., “de-policing”) on violent crime across neighborhoods in Denver, Colorado, leveraging the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest after the murder of George Floyd as exogenous shocks. The study utilized multilevel models to analyze the impact of large-scale reductions in police stops and drug-related arrests on violent and property crime in the city.

Continue reading . . .

Analyzing homicide trends: Republican vs. Democratic leadership

by · Oct 19, 2023 1:22 pm

In the ever-evolving landscape of American politics and society, the question of how political affiliation relates to social phenomena remains a topic of enduring interest. One such subject, the fluctuating rates of homicide, serves as a poignant case in point. Numerous researchers, thinktanks, and policymakers have examined the stark variations in homicide rates that have emerged across these political divides. However, with so many factors at play influencing homicide rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to know how much variation is attributable to differences in political affiliation. In this post, I will dissect views from thinktanks on both side of the aisle and attempt to make some sense of this controversy. Continue reading . . .

Vallejo, CA officially declares state of emergency over police shortage

by · Aug 1, 2023 12:10 pm

Last week, the city of Vallejo, California officially declared a state of emergency due to its lack of police officers, Daniel Egitto of the Vallejo Times-Herald reports. Over the last several months, the Vallejo Police Department (VPD)’s officer shortage has been worsening, with five officers leaving since March, and another three scheduled to leave within the next month.

Continue reading . . .

Rural America surging worse in homicides

by · Jul 26, 2022 12:31 pm

After declining for over two decades, homicides in the United States increased sharply in 2015 and 2016. This slowed a little bit in the years that followed, until another dramatic increase in homicides occurred in 2020. In fact, the 30% increase from 2019-2020 is the largest ever recorded. By 2021, homicides rose another 5%. This uptick was not as striking as the one seen in 2020, though the numbers were still higher than pre-2019. And while cities tend to have higher violent crime rates overall, newer research suggests that cities are now safer than they have been in decades, while small communities are becoming more dangerous. Specifically, the massive increase in homicides in rural areas is astonishing. From 2019-2020, homicides in rural areas rose by an average of 25 percent. Per the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the states with the highest homicide rates in 2020 were Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, and Arkansas.

Continue reading . . .

New study examines the impacts of the pandemic and George Floyd’s death on crime and policing

by · Apr 19, 2022 10:38 am

After the killing of George Floyd in 2020, protests erupted throughout many cities and calls for defunding the police became the new norm. This also occurred at the same time as the pandemic, which police responded to in myriad ways. A new study by researchers at Arizona State University examined the independent impacts of George Floyd’s death and the pandemic on crime and police work. Overall, the study found that both events had independent impacts on some measures of crime and police activity. The pandemic seemed to have a greater impact on crime while George Floyd’s death seemed to have a greater impact on police proactivity. The impacts on police work were massive and are consistent with the de-policing hypothesis.

Continue reading . . .

Police leadership and organizational culture on police effectiveness

by · Nov 16, 2021 3:43 pm

In a recent article, I discuss some of the antecedents and consequences of “de-policing,” a term used to refer to reductions in proactive policing strategies. Increases in de-policing also coincide with increases in public pressure and aggression (e.g., protests, ‘viral’ police use-of-force videos). Recently, there have been various movements meant to “reform” police departments, such as efforts to de-fund the police and efforts to end qualified immunity. Unfortunately though, these efforts can come off as aggressive and may decrease officer motivation and increase their cynicism of their jobs. This is important, as officer motivation and morale is likely a key mechanism contributing to the de-policing effect. On a broader scale, efforts to de-fund the police would constrain agencies’ abilities to train their officers, acquire new technology, and leverage data/digital evidence to be more proactive in preventing crime.

Continue reading . . .

Antecedents and consequences of de-policing

by · Nov 12, 2021 10:47 am

De-policing is a term that refers to a reduction in proactive policing strategies, and it tends to coincide with officers’ fears of becoming ‘the next viral incident’ and/or criminal prosecution. The de-policing effect seemed to start around 2014 after a viral shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, and hence, it is sometimes referred to as the “Ferguson Effect.” Since then, increased circulation of viral videos from body-worn camera footage and cell phone videos on the internet seem to have exacerbated the effect. The Manhattan Institute released a report recently discussing the research on de-policing effects and qualitative findings from interviews with police officers, and main findings indicated that de-policing seems to be associated with low police morale/motivation and fear of becoming involved in a viral use of force incident. Officer morale also decreases when officers feel less supported by their communities.

Simultaneously, there has been criticism of officers pulling back and being less proactive, saying that it is correlated to recent increases in homicides and violent crime. On September 27, 2021, the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) released preliminary findings that revealed that violent crime is up, with a violent crime rate of 387.8 per 100,000 — a 5.2% increase when compared with 2019 rates (380.8 per 100,000). The violent crime increase appears to be driven by increases in aggravated assaults (+12.0%) and murders (+29.4%), whereas rates for other violent crimes (i.e., robbery, rape) decreased from 2019 to 2020 (-9.3% and -12.0%, respectively). While overall crime rates are lower than they have been in previous years, homicides and shootings are higher than normal, and this trend appears to be continuing into 2021. As stated above, many argue that the “de-policing effect” increases violent crime in certain cities. Additionally, the “defund the police” movement does not help this problem, as it simply limits law enforcement access to technology and/or other resources that could effectively reduce crime.

Continue reading . . .